[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 8 09:30:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.3 06/2227UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.1 0616UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0823UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.4 1147UT possible lower European
M1.5 1254UT possible lower European
M8.2 1630UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.1 2022UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.3 2126UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 204/155
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 205/156 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-May reached R2, due to M5.1
and M8.2 flares from AR3663(N26W50, beta-gamma-delta). This region
has shown some decline and increased separation in its intermediate
spots with trailer spots reconfiguring though still retaining
magnetic complexity. Region AR3663 has recently been the more
flare active of the two large regions on the solar disk. The
other large region AR3664(S18W13, beta-gamma-delta) produced
R1 flare activity in the past 24 hours. AR3664's trailer spots
are interacting with the leader spots of nearby and rapidly growing
AR3668(S17E03, beta-gamma-delta). A large delta spot is evident
in the trailer spots of AR3664 with a smaller delta spot just
to the south, and a very small delta spot is evident in one of
AR3668 leader spots. Other regions are relatively small and stable.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A faint CME was observed to the southeast
from 07/0248UT, which is considered to be associated with localised
plasma motion from AR3668 at 07/0148UT and is not considered
significant. A bright northeast directed CME was observed from
07/0748UT and is associated with northeast solar limb activity
at N10-N20 07/0654UT in SDO304 imagery. This CME is directed
away from the Earth. A very faint south directed CME was observed
from 07/1600UT and is not considered significant. Solar activity
is expected to be R2-R3 over 08-10 May. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 07-May. S0, with the chance
of S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 08-10
May. The solar wind speed was steady and ranged between 478 and
602 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) reached 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -3 nT. The currently enhanced solar wind speed is due
to a coronal hole wind stream. There is a chance of a weak CME
component arrival on 08-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: G0
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Cocos Island 4 22111211
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 5 22121211
Learmonth 6 22222221
Alice Springs 4 21111211
Gingin 5 22112221
Canberra 3 12111210
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11111210
Hobart 3 11112210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 4 11022220
Casey 9 24221222
Mawson 17 23322435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 5222 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 14 G0, chance G1
09 May 10 G0
10 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-May. In the Antarctic region a G1 period
was observed at Mawson, other Antarctic sites were G0. G0 conditions
are generally expected over 08-10 May, with a chance of G1 on
08-May due to a possible arrival of a weak CME component.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-May were
generally normal, though with frequent fadeouts impacting lower
HF frequencies. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal to fair over 08-10 May. Frequent shortwave fadeouts
are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on
6 May and is current for 7-9 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-May were generally near predicted monthly
values. A minor shortwave fadeout was observed in the northern
Australian region in association with the M5.1 flare at 07/0616UT.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values for 08-10 May. Frequent
shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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