[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 May 24 issued 2333 UT on 06 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 7 09:33:11 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0106UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0528UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X4.5 0635UT confirmed all Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0959UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 2148UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.3 2227UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity R2,chance R3 R2,chance R3 R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-May reached R3, due to an
X4.5 flare from AR3663(N26W36, beta-gamma-delta). The slow rise
and fall flare was not associated with Type II or IV radio sweeps
and in LASCO C2 appeared to be associated with a narrow north
directed CME. This region has shown a mix of growth and decay,
with decay evident in the outer spots and development in its
trailer spots and reconfiguration in its intermediate spots.
Overall the region has grown in longitudinal extent. This region
also produced lower M class flares and the M4.3 flare at 06/2227UT.
The other large and complex region AR3664(S18E01, beta-gamma-delta)
has grown in its trailer spots but has been more flare quiet
producing a minor C8.8 flare at 06/0422UT, with smaller nearby
AR3668(S17E17, beta-gamma) showing rapid growth. Other regions
are relatively small or stable. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. At this stage, despite the
frequent strong flare activity, no significantly Earth directed
CMEs appear to be on the way to the Earth. Space based coronagraph
imagery will be reviewed as it becomes more available. A southeast
directed CME observed from 05/1600UT correlated with activity
near region AR3664 is not expected to be significantly geoeffective
and is currently being modelled. A west directed CME was observed
in LASCO C2 from 05/1712UT, which appears correlated with northwest
limb activity from 05/1638UT, with breaking plasma arches visible
on the limb in SDO304, has been modelled as an Earth miss. The
narrow CME associated with the X4 flare on 06-May has been modelled
as an Earth miss. Solar activity is expected to be R2, chance
R3 over 07-09 May. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 06-May. S0, with the chance of S1 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected to be S0 over 07-09 May. The solar wind environment
on UT day 06-May showed a slowly rising trend in speed from 06/0600UT
suggesting the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. The solar
wind speed ranged between 350 and 590 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 20 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was +14 to -11 nT. The recently enhanced
solar wind IMF may be the passage of the predominately north
directed CME on 03-May passing above the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: G0
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 10 42332211
Cocos Island 8 32322211
Darwin 8 32322212
Townsville 11 42332311
Learmonth 13 52332221
Alice Springs 9 32332211
Gingin 12 52322221
Canberra 7 31232211
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 42242211
Hobart 9 32242211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 20 41264212
Casey 14 44432211
Mawson 13 53322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 2122 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 14 G0, slight chance G1
08 May 12 G0
09 May 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 4 May and
is current for 5-7 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-May. In the Antarctic region
a G2 period was observed at Macquarie Island, a G1 period at
Mawson and G0 conditions were observed at Casey. G0 conditions
are expected over 07-09 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-May were
generally normal. Conditions were fair during local night hours
at middle to high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal to fair over 07-09 May. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 47 was issued
on 5 May and is current for 5-7 May. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 48 was issued on 6 May and is current for 7-9 May. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-May were generally near
predicted monthly values. A shortwave fadeout was observed in
the Australian region in association with the X4.5 flare from
06/0517-0848UT. Spread-F was observed in Hobart, Canberra and
Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values for 07-09 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 35400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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