[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 6 09:30:50 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 04/2237UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M6.6 04/2342UT probable lower West Pacific
M9.1 04/2348UT probable lower West Pacific
X1.3 0601UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0816UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.3 0938UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M7.4 1000UT probable lower European
X1.2 1154UT probable all European
M1.3 1447UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.2 1539UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1840UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 1952UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity R1-R3 R-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-May reached R3, and there
were a total of two X1 (R3) level solar flares; three R2 level
solar flares and eight R1 level solar flares. The first R3 flare
originated from AR3663 (N26W23, beta-gamma-delta), but the second
R3 event was shared between AR3663 and AR3664 (S18E14, beta-gamma-delta).
The R2 and R1 level flares were also shared between AR3663 and
AR3664. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3663 has been the most active and holds a high
potential for solar flares, and has continued to change rapidly
throughout the day. This region still maintains a large delta
spot. AR3664 has grown significantly over the past day and also
has potential for significant solar flares. AR3668 (S20E30, beta)
is a new region but has grown rapidly over the past day. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R3 over 06-08 May.
Coronagraph imagery is currently mostly unavailable, restricting today's
CME forecast once again. Other solar imagery indicates there
may have been some weak plasma emissions from AR3663, and while
they may have weak Earth directed components over 06-07 May they
are not expected to be significant events. It is suspected there
has been a CME associated with an R1 flare from AR3664 around
05/1540 UT that may have an Earth directed component, however
a precise analysis cannot be performed until coronagraph images
are available.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 05-May. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected to
be S0 over 06-08 May, however there is potential for this forecast
to be upgraded once AR3664 rotates into a more geoeffective location.
The solar wind environment on UT day 05-May was unsettled for
the first half of the day, before a weak disturbance was observed
around 1800 UT, possibly the arrival of the CME from 03-May.
The solar wind speed ranged between 310 and 390 km/s and is on
an incline. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) reached 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to - 11 nT. Bz has been oriented southward since 1815
UT. The solar wind environment is expected to be disturbed over
06-08 May, as several weak glancing blows from recent CMEs are
possible. A coronal hole may also contribute to the increase
in the solar wind speed over the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: G0
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 6 21220123
Cocos Island 6 21310123
Townsville 8 22321123
Learmonth 6 21220123
Alice Springs 5 21220122
Gingin 7 20220124
Canberra 5 11230022
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11230022
Hobart 5 21230022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 8 10250012
Casey 6 32221012
Mawson 13 33311125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 18 G1-G2, slight chance G3
07 May 14 G1-G2
08 May 12 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 4 May and
is current for 5-7 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were G0 in
the Australian region on UT day. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G1 at Macquarie Island.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-May were
generally normal to fair at most latitudes. Conditions were fair
during local night hours. HF radio communication conditions are
expected to be normal to fair over 06-08 May. Equatorial scintillation
is possible. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
07 May 95 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
08 May 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on
3 May and is current for 4-6 May. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 47 was issued on 5 May and is current for 5-7 May. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-May were generally near
predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in Hobart and
Perth during local night hours and sporadic-E was observed in
Canberra during local night hours, along with generally degraded
conditions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to
20% depressed over 06-08 May, as there is possible geomagnetic
activity in the forecast for the coming days. Shortwave fadeout
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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