[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 5 09:30:50 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 03/2243UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.4 03/2330UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 0036UT possible lower West Pacific
M9.1 0619UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0707UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1820UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.2 2237UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-May was R2, with the largest
solar flare of the day being M9.1 from AR3663 (N26W12, beta-gamma-delta).
Several other low-level R1 solar flares were also observed today,
also originating from AR3663. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3663 is the most complex
and appears unstable; although its delta spot may have weakened,
the region continues to change rapidly. AR3664 (S18E25, beta-gamma-delta)
is another complex region and has undergone dramatic growth in
the past day, although this region has been mostly quiet so far.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R3 over 05-07 May.
A significant
lack of coronagraph imagery restricts today's CME forecast, however
two potentially geoeffective CMEs have been identified. A filament
eruption near N10E30 at 03/2026 UT was associated with a weak
partial halo CME, which is expected to arrive to Earth by late
06-May. Associated with the M9 solar flare was a CME, and while
the bulk of it appears to be launched north of the Earth, a glancing
impact may be expected on late 06-May.
The large filament in the solar southwest quadrant still remains
stable and intact, but will continued to be monitored.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 04-May.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 05-07 May.
The solar wind environment on UT day 04-May was generally
undisturbed. A slow decline into background conditions followed
a slow incline due to the onset of a small equatorial coronal hole
wind stream. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF range (Bz) was +3 to -3 nT.
The solar wind speed ranged from 400 km/s to near 350 km/s.
The solar wind is expected to become further elevated later
in UT day 05-May due to an expected arrival of the CME associated
with the X flare from 03-May. Disturbed solar wind conditions are
expected to persist over 06-07 May as further CME arrivals are possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: G0
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 2 11010112
Townsville 3 11201102
Learmonth 3 11110112
Alice Springs 2 11100112
Gingin 4 11001123
Canberra 2 11001002
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11001112
Hobart 2 11001111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00001101
Casey 5 22101113
Mawson 14 12110136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 12 4312 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 25 G1-G2, chance G3
06 May 18 G1-G2, chance G3
07 May 14 G0-G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 4 May and
is current for 5-7 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 04-May. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be reached on 05-May,
with a chance for G3, due to the anticipated arrival of a CME
combined with a coronal hole wind stream. Further CME impacts
are expected on 06-May, causing disturbed conditions to persist
over 06-07 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
07 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-May were
generally normal to fair. Degraded conditions were observed in
low latitudes, associated with equatorial scintillation. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be normal to fair during
local daylight hours on 05-May, before the onset of degraded
conditions, which is likely to persist over 06-07 May. Equatorial
scintillation is possible. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
06 May 100 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
07 May 95 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on
3 May and is current for 4-6 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-May were near predicted values to 30% depressed.
Degraded conditions were observed in Brisbane, and spread-F was
observed in Brisbane, Hobart, Niue and Perth during local night
hours. Equatorial scintillation was observed at Niue between
04/0933-0950 UT. Depressions may ease during local daylight hours
on 05-May, but depressions are generally expected to persist
over 05-07 May due to expected geomagnetic activity. Equatorial
scintillation after local midnight hours is possible. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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