[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 4 09:30:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 0015UT possible lower West Pacific
X1.6 0222UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M4.5 0811UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 2243UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-May reached R3. In total
there was one X-class flare and two M-class flares, produced
by regions AR3664(S18E38, gamma) and AR3663 (N26E01, beta-gamma-delta).
AR3663 has grown significantly in complexity over the past day,
with a strong delta spot and potential for X-class solar flares.
AR3664 has also shown some minor growth, as well as AR3666 (N07E17,
beta-gamma). All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity over 04-06 May is expected to be R1-R2
with a chance for R3.
A weak CME was associated with the M2.7
flare from AR3664 at 03/0015, but is not expected to be geoeffective.
A CME was associated with the X1.6 solar flare from AR3663; the
bulk was launched north of the Earth, however an impact is still
likely around 0900 UT +/- 10 hours on 05-May. A weak CME was
associated with the M4.4 solar flare from AR3663 and may have
a weak arrival later on 05-May, although this arrival is not
expected to be significant.
A CME that was first seen on 01-May has been reanalysed and may have
a small glancing component to Earth on either 04 or 05 May, although
this is not high confidence. Some low level flare activity near
AR3666 may have been associated with some CME activity around
03/2100 UT, although analysis on this event is ongoing.
An M1 solar flare was observed at 03/2248 UT from near
AR3663, but an associated CME cannot be confirmed until
further coronagraph imagery is available.
There is currently a large filament location in the solar
southwest quadrant. It appears to be mostly stable at the
time of writing, but it will be monitored closely for any potential
eruption.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 03-May
and S0 solar radiation storm conditions are mostly expected
over 04-06 May.
The solar was environment was on a general decline into background conditions
on UT day 03-May. The solar wind speed was near 500 km/s at the
beginning of the day, falling to near 400 km/s by the end. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT
due to the unexpected CME shock on 02-May, but abruptly fell
to quiet levels by 03/0155 UT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind environment is likely to
be disturbed over 04-06 May due to several possible CME arrivals,
plus a coronal hole wind stream. The biggest disturbance is expected
on 05-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: G0
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 4 32120011
Cocos Island 3 32110010
Townsville 7 43121011
Learmonth 7 42221021
Alice Springs 4 32120011
Gingin 7 42220021
Canberra 4 32120011
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 32120011
Hobart 5 33120011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 4 32120020
Casey 9 43230021
Mawson 33 74331153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 56 2134 5784
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 12 G0, chance G1
05 May 25 G1-G2, chance G3
06 May 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region on UT day 03-May, with an isolated
period of G3 at Mawson. Geomagnetic activity over 04-06 May is
generally expected to be disturbed. A glancing component of the
01-May CME may arrival either on 04 or 05 May, followed by an
impact from the 03-May CME, in addition to the onset of a coronal
hole wind stream possibly on 05-May. Further impacts are possible,
however analysis is ongoing for this.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
05 May Normal-fair Normal Fair
06 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
to fair for most of UT day 03-May, in response to a recent geomagnetic
storm. Equatorial scintillation contributed to degraded conditions
near local midnight hours. Degraded and depressed conditions
were observed at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be generally improving on 04-May, with mild degradations
likely to persist in high latitudes. Equatorial scintillation
is possible. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 108 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
05 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on
3 May and is current for 4-6 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-May were near predicted
values in the north ad 30% depressed in the south. Spread-F was
observed at most sites during local night hours. Scintillation
was observed in Darwin between 03/1320-1340 UT. MUFs are expected
to begin returning to near predicted values on 04-May, although
some mild depressions may persist in high latitudes. Equatorial
scintillation may continue during local midnight hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 68200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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