[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 3 09:30:46 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0217UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 2057UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 132/86 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-May was R1, due to an M1.0
flare from AR3663(N26E16, beta-gamma) and an M2.7 flare from
AR3664(S18E54, beta-gamma). These solar regions have shown growth
in the past 24 hours. Large solar region AR3654(S06W88, --) is
almost completely off disk, with its trailer spots just visible.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. Other solar regions are small and stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R1 over 03-05 May. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed on 02-May in the available imagery. A westward
CME was observed from 02/1036UT in LASCO C2 which could not be
confidently correlated with on disk activity, possibly from AR3654
just over the western solar limb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 02-May. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 03-05 May. An unexpected shock was observed
in the solar wind at 02/1315UT. The interplanetary magnetic field
became enhanced due to the CME transit. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 22 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was +18 to -19 nT with Bz becoming strongly
southward during the interval 02/1315-1900UT, then swinging northwards.
The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 323 km/s to 477
km/s. The solar wind speed was only moderately elevated following
the shock arrival. The temperature parameter of the solar wind
data did not show a discontinuity preventing auto detection.
A small isolated coronal hole is visible centred at N12W15, which
may mildly increase solar wind speed during 04-05 May. A solar
filament with centre located at S35W12 is showing movement over
the past two days and could be unstable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: G1
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 21 22234553
Cocos Island 16 22234443
Townsville 22 22334553
Learmonth 26 32335553
Alice Springs 21 22234553
Gingin 26 32334562
Canberra 21 12234553
Kennaook Cape Grim 25 12234563
Hobart 21 12234553
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 35 11255663
Casey 17 22333353
Mawson 36 33343573
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 4220 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 25 G1, chance G2 early in the UT day
04 May 12 G0
05 May 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 2 May and
is current for 2-3 May. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02-May. G1-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The planetary
Kp geomagnetic index reached G3 for two periods 02/15-21UT. The
geomagnetic storm activity followed an unexpected CME arrival
observed in the solar wind at 02/1315UT, with a a weak (12nT)
impulse observed in the regional geomagnetic field at 02/1408UT.
The geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to decline today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Fair Fair-poor
04 May Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were initially normal
on 02-May becoming degraded at middle to high latitudes during
the second half of the UT day. The degraded conditions were due
to an unexpected CME arrival inducing geomagnetic storm activity.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to degraded for
middle to high latitudes on 03-May, with low latitude conditions
remaining normal. Improved HF conditions for middle to high latitudes
are expected for 04-May. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 70 Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 2 May
and is current for 3 May only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 02-May were mostly near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region during the local day. Degraded conditions
were observed during local night hours due to the onset of geomagnetic
activity, with strong spread F observed at Hobart. Spread F was
observed at Canberra and Perth. After local dawn this morning
southern Australian regional MUFs were depressed 20-30%. Northern
Australian regional MUFs are mostly near normal. Depressed and
degraded HF conditions are now expected for the southern Australian
region for 03-May. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed 02/0833-1413UT at Darwin and Niue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 9 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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