[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 May 24 issued 2331 UT on 01 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 2 09:31:16 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.5 30/2346UT probable lower West Pacific
M1.9 1440T possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.8 2231UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 134/88 130/84 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-May was R2, with both the
M9.5 and M1.9 flares produced by solar region AR3654(S06W74,
gamma-delta). This region is declining as it approaches the southwest
solar limb and is currently the largest region on the visible
solar disk. AR3654 also produced a C5.8 flare at 01/0758UT. Solar
regions AR3663(N26E24, gamma) and AR3664(S16E65, beta-gamma)
are currently growing and are magnetically complex. The M1.8
flare observed late in the UT day was from solar region AR3663.
Solar region AR3662(N30E01, beta) is magnetically simple but
is also showing growth. There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Other solar regions are small and
stable. Solar activity is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 02-04
May. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on 01-May in the available
imagery. The M9.5 flare was not associated with a CME. A west
directed CME was observed from 01/0624UT possibly associated
with the C5.8 flare from AR3654 or earlier plasma motion evident
in SDO171 between minor region AR3655(S26W63, alpha) and AR3654
at 01/0616UT, with GONG H-alpha imagery showing emission at 01/0618UT
located at S16W70. This CME has been modelled using this location
as an Earth miss. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 01-May, with no proton event following the M9 flare. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected over 02-04 May. The solar
wind slowly declined over the UT day 01-May. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (MF, Bt) reached 14 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was +13 to -5 nT with Bz mostly northward
throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed ranged from approximately
346 km/s to 430 km/s. A thin coronal hole which partially closed
after it recently transited the solar central meridian may weakly
enhance the solar wind speed during 02-03 May. Other small isolated
coronal holes are visible centred at N12W03 and S10E20.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: G0
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22210121
Cocos Island 4 2-220120
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 32211122
Learmonth 7 33211121
Alice Springs 4 22200121
Gingin 4 32200111
Canberra 3 22200011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22200011
Hobart 3 22200011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 2 21100010
Casey 10 33310133
Mawson 16 54300134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 2201 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 12 G0
03 May 10 G0
04 May 2 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 02-04
May, with a mild increase in geomagnetic activity possible due
to a coronal hole wind stream on 02-03 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 01-May. High latitudes may have experienced mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours and low latitudes may have
experienced equatorial scintillation. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 02-04 May, with
mildly degraded conditions possible during local night hours
02-03 May. Isolated minor fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on
30 April and is current for 1-2 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-May were mostly near predicted monthly values
in the Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Hobart and
Darwin during local night hours. Equatorial scintillation was
observed between 01/1330-1430UT at Darwin and Weipa. Amplitude
scintillation was observed at Weipa 01/0410-0510UT, though this
may be instrument noise. A shortwave fadeout was observed 20/2340-01/0019UT
in association withe M9 flare. Isolated minor fadeouts possible
on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 33400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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