[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 1 09:30:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0114UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 1511UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1633UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 136/90 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Apr was R1, with three M1
level solar flares. All of these flares originated from AR3654
(S06W61, gamma). There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3654 remains the only complex region; although
it nears the limb and cannot be analysed well due to projection
effects, it appears to be decaying and has lost its delta spot.
AR3662 (N30E11, beta) has shown some minor growth over the day,
but all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 01-03 May.
No CMEs of significance were observed on 30-Apr in the available imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 30-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 01-03 May.
The solar wind environment was quiet until 30/1134 UT, when a
weak shock was detected. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (MF, Bt) reached 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -10 nT with several periods of southward
Bz. The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 370 km/s to
420 km/s. The source of this disturbance is currently being investigated,
although no significant activity is expected to arise. The solar
wind environment is expected to settle into background conditions
over 01-May and into 02-03 May. There is a chance that a thin
coronal hole may enhance the solar wind speed over the forecast
period, however this feature has weakened and any influence is
expected to be minimal.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 22112333
Cocos Island 8 12112333
Darwin - --------
Townsville 11 23113333
Learmonth 10 22123333
Alice Springs 9 22112333
Gingin 8 21112333
Canberra 7 12002333
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12002333
Hobart 6 11001333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 01001332
Casey 8 23111233
Mawson 28 12022357
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 8 G0
02 May 8 G0
03 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 01-03
May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 30-Apr. High latitudes may have experienced mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours and low latitudes may have
experienced equatorial scintillation. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 01-03 May, with
mildly degraded conditions possibly persisting in low latitudes
due to equatorial scintillation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Apr were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed in Hobart during local night hours. Equatorial
scintillation was detected between 30/0618-1422 UT at Weipa.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 89500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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