[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 11 09:30:47 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 09/2241UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.6 09/2351UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0329UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0624UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X3.9 0654UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M5.9 1411UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1741UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1832UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.8 1850UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.8 2108UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 223/173
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-May was at the R3 level
due an X3.9 flare from solar region AR3664(S20W43, beta-gamma-delta).
This region also produced an R2 (M5.9) flare at 10/1411UT. This
large and magnetically complex region has shown redistribution
of its intermediate spots. As the region moves progressively
westward on the solar disk the impact on the Earth's magnetosphere
of any subsequent CMEs will be less direct. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R2-R3 levels over 11-13 May. The GOES solar proton flux
briefly spiked at S2 with a peak flux of 207PFU at 10/1740UT
and is currently just above the S1 threshold with a flux of 15PFU.
S0-S1 solar proton flux levels are expected 11-12 May. The X3
flare was associated with a partial halo CME which is expected
to arrive at 12/0800UT +/- 12 hours. Yesterday's CME observed
from 09/1852UT is expected to arrive at 12/0700UT +/- 12 hours.
The R2 (M5.9) flare does not appear to be associated with a significant
CME. A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 10/1637UT.
The GOES geosynchronous satellite magnetometers observed magnetopause
crossing with the CME arrival. The solar wind was steady preshock
at around 400-450km/sec. Post shock arrival the solar wind jumped
to approximately 700km/sec and the north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) fell strongly southward to -46nT. The solar ranged from
400 to 750 km/s and is currently near 680 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 53 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +18 to -46 nT. The solar wind environment
is expected to be very enhanced over 11-12 May due to an expected
sequence of CME arrivals. THE ACE EPAM CME precursor data channel
is again rising toward the nd of the UT day today indicating
further CME arrivals are likely. A small isolated coronal hole
is visible at N20W30.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: G3
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 50 23222677
Cocos Island 34 23112666
Darwin 43 23312667
Townsville 43 23223667
Learmonth 51 23223677
Alice Springs 42 23222667
Gingin 59 33222578
Canberra 38 23222567
Kennaook Cape Grim 47 23223577
Hobart 77 23323688
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 85 12334976
Casey 53 34222586
Mawson 53 55223676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 46 (Unsettled)
Townsville 65 (Active)
Learmonth 64 (Active)
Alice Springs 69 (Active)
Gingin 106 (Major storm)
Canberra 126 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 85
Planetary 97
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 150 G4, chance G5
12 May 50 G1-G2
13 May 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 10 May and
is current for 10-12 May. G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 10-May, with a sudden storm
commencement observed at 10/1706UT. G3-G5 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. A sequence of CMEs are
currently approaching the Earth. G4, with the chance of G5 geomagnetic
storm conditions are expected for 11-May. G1-G2 conditions are
expected on 12-May, then declining geomagnetic activity is expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 10 05 2024 1350UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Fair-normal Poor Poor(PCA)
12 May Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor
13 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-May were
initially normal, becoming strongly degraded late in the UT day
due to the onset of severe geomagnetic storm activity. Strongly
degraded HF conditions are expected for middle to high latitudes
for 11-May. Moderate enhancements in equatorial TEC have been
observed. Isolated periods of high latitude scintillation have
been observed. High latitude/polar cap HF communications have
also been impact by increased absorption of up to 3dB on 10-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 20 40 to 50% below predicted monthly values
12 May 65 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on
9 May and is current for 10-12 May. ASWFC HF Communications Warning
51 was issued on 10 May and is current for 11 May only. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-May were near predicted
monthly values until the local dawn period, after which becoming
depressed by 30-50% due to the onset of a severe geomagnetic
storm. A shortwave fadeout was observed 10/0619-1059UT in association
with the X3 flare. Strong spread F was observed at southern Australian
region ionosonde locations during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be depressed by 40% on 11-May, with extremely degraded
HF conditions. Further ionospheric depressions, though not as
severe, are likely on 12-May. Frequent shortwave fadeouts are
expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 72400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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