[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 March 24 issued 2331 UT on 29 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 30 10:31:23 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 0230UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1843UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 1935UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 150/105 145/99
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 29-Mar was at the R1 level due to an M3.2
flare at 29/0230UT, an M1.0 flare at 29/1843UT and an M1.2 flare at
29/1935UT. There were also several high C-class flares over the UT
day.
There are currently four numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3615 remains the largest and most magnetically complex region
on the disk and was responsible for all of the significant flaring of
the UT day. This region has started to rotate off the visible disk,
however it is still expected to be the main influence on solar activity
for the next 3 days. All other active regions are either stable or in
decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 30-Mar to 1-Apr,
with a chance of R3 on 30-31 Mar.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 30-Mar to 1-Apr, with a
chance of S1.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 29-Mar.
The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Mar decreased, ranging from 446 to
316 km/s and is currently near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -2 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over
30-Mar to 1-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22212101
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 4 22212101
Townsville 4 22212101
Learmonth 4 22212101
Alice Springs 4 22212101
Gingin 4 22212001
Canberra 4 22212100
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12212100
Hobart 3 12212100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 01123100
Casey 9 24422100
Mawson 11 24411123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 8 G0
31 Mar 5 G0
01 Apr 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 30-Mar to 1-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communications on UT day 29-Mar were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 30-Mar
to 1-Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on
29 March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced during local day in the southern Australian region
and were near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced during
local night in the northern Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 30-Mar
to 1-Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list