[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 29 10:30:11 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.1 0629UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M6.1 1556UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1931UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M9.7 2046UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.1 2057UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Mar was at the R3 level
due to an X1.1 flare at 28/2056UT from AR3615 (S13W68, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently five numbered active regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3615 remains the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk, also producing two R2 level flares
and one R1 flare on 28-Mar. This region has exhibited spot development
over the UT day, particularly in its trailer spots. AR3617 (S14W34,
beta-gamma) has shown growth in its leader spot. All other active
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R2 level over 29-31 Mar, with a chance of R3. S0
solar proton conditions are expected over 29-31 Mar, with a chance
of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 28-Mar decreased, ranging from 390 to 490 km/s
and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to background levels over 29-31 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Cocos Island 4 -2211112
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 9 22322223
Alice Springs 6 22222212
Gingin 6 12222212
Canberra 5 12122212
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 32233212
Hobart 6 12222212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 12144111
Casey 8 23312212
Mawson 8 12322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 3121 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 10 G0
30 Mar 8 G0
31 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-31 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications on UT day 28-Mar were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 29-31 Mar.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
26 March and is current for 27-29 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 29-31 Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 40700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list