[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 March 24 issued 2331 UT on 27 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 28 10:31:03 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0144UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0641UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Mar was at the R1 level
due to two M1.1 flares at 27/0144UT and 27/0641UT. Both flares
were produced by AR3615 (S13W54, beta-gamma-delta). There are
currently five numbered active regions visible on the solar disk.
AR3615 is the largest and most magnetically complex region. This
region has exhibited spot development in its trailer spots, whilst
its intermediate spots have decayed. AR3617 (S14W21, beta) has
shown mild growth in its leader spot. All other active regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 28-30 Mar. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 27-Mar. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 28-30 Mar, with a chance of S1 due to the westerly
location of AR3615. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
A west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 27/0136UT. This CME is considered to be a farside
event and therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 27-Mar increased, ranging from 460 to 570 km/s and is
currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 28-30 Mar as CME and coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 31311011
Cocos Island 3 21211011
Darwin 4 21211012
Townsville 6 31321012
Learmonth 5 31211112
Alice Springs 4 21311002
Gingin 6 31311111
Canberra 4 21311001
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 31311001
Hobart 5 31311001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 21211001
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 10 23321214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 3303 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 5 G0
29 Mar 10 G0
30 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 27-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 28-30 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications on UT day 27-Mar were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 28-30 Mar.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
26 March and is current for 27-29 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Mar were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 28-30 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 80200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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