[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 27 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0036UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1017UT possible lower European
M1.3 1043UT possible lower European
M1.9 1330UT possible lower European
M1.6 2158UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 26-Mar was at the R1 level due to an M1.8
flare at 26/0036UT, an M1.0 flare at 26/1017UT, an M1.3 at 26/1043,
an M1.9 flare at 26/1330 and an M1.6 flare at 26/2157UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
By far the most significant sunspot region is AR3615 (S13W41, beta-gamma-delta).
This sunspot group is large, magnetically complex and showed spot
development over the UT day, it was responsible for the majority of
the M-class flares on 26-Mar. AR3621 (N15W78, beta) was responsible
for the rest of the M-class flares, though this region is soon to
rotate off the solar disk. AR3619 (N19W07, beta) showed spot development
over the UT day, but remains small and magnetically simple. All other
sunspot groups were either stable or in decay on 26-Mar.
Solar activity over 27-29 Mar is expected to be at R1-R2 levels, with
a chance of R3, predominantly due to AR3615.
S0 conditions are expected over 27-29 Mar, however there is a chance
of S1 conditions, especially if significant flaring activity occurs from
AR3615 as it approaches the western limb.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on UT day 26-Mar. A faint halo CME
from 26/0624UT is visible from the north to the west in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery. There is no associated on disk activity for this
CME and it is not considered geoeffective. There was a filament eruption
at around S05E50 from 26/1406UT visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery. No associated CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery.
The solar wind speed was in gradual decline on UT day 26-Mar, ranging
from 489 km/s to 649 km/s and is currently at around 490 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) was
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline towards background
levels and remain there over 27-29 Mar as CME and coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22132222
Darwin 7 22132212
Townsville 7 22132222
Learmonth 8 22132322
Alice Springs 7 22132212
Gingin 6 22122222
Canberra 6 22031222
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22122212
Hobart 6 22122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 12022322
Casey 20 45342323
Mawson 41 55333466
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 4433 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 8 G0
28 Mar 5 G0
29 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Mar. Mostly G1 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-29 Mar, a glancing
CME impact is possible on the second half of 29-Mar, however
this is not expected to produce geomagnetic activity above the
G0 level.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0805UT 23/03, Ended at 1405UT 25/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications on UT day 26-Mar were fair to
normal in the first half of the day. Conditions eased in the
second half of the day to mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions
are expected on 27-Mar, with a chance of degraded conditions
at high latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
28-29 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
26 March and is current for 27-29 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Mar were near predicted monthly values in
the southern Australian region, and enhanced by up to 15% in
the northern Australian region. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane
and Canberra and spread F was observed at Perth and Hobart during
local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 27-29 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 725 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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