[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 31 10:30:11 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.2 2116UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M9.4 2131UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.5 2253UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 125/78 120/72
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 30-Mar was at the R2 level due to an M9.2
flare at 30/2116UT, a long duration M9.4 flare at 30/2131UT and an
M4.5 flare at 30/2253UT, the peaks of the second and third flare overlap
the tail of the preceding flares. The combined X-Ray flux is still
elevated above the R1 threshold at the time of writing. All of these
flares were produced by AR3615 (S13W82, beta-delta).
There are currently three numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3615 remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the disk and was responsible for all
of the significant flaring of the UT day. This region has started to
rotate off the visible disk, however it is still expected to be the main
influence on solar activity for the next two days. All other active regions
are stable. An unnumbered region has developed on the solar disk at
around N15E54 with beta magnetic characteristics.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 31-Mar to 01-Apr,
with a chance of R3. R0-R1 activity is expected on 02-Apr after AR3516
has rotated off the solar disk.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 31-Mar to 02-Apr, with a
chance of S1 on 31-Mar to 01-Apr due to recent M-class flaring from AR3516
on the western limb.
No significantly geoeffective CMEs were observed on 30-Mar. A broad south
directed CME is visible from 30/0412UT in SOHO imagery, although the first
observed time is difficult to determine as this CME is obscured by others.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. A west directed CME is visible in
SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 30/2148UT following the M-class flaring from
AR3516. There is currently limited imagery and further analysis will be
performed when more imagery becomes available, however any CME from this
location is likely to pass ahead of the Earth and produce a glancing impact at
most.
The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Mar increased, ranging from 316 to 455 km/s
and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -9
nT.
The enhancement in solar wind and IMF conditions is due to high speed wind
stream effects produced by a number of small coronal holes rotating into a
geoeffective position.
These coronal holes will continue rotating through a geoeffective area until
05-Apr. The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly elevated, with
mild dips and enhancements likely over 31-Mar to 02-Apr as the Earth moves
through different coronal hole high speed wind stream regimes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11001212
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 4 11012212
Townsville 5 12112212
Learmonth 3 11002211
Alice Springs 3 01111212
Gingin 1 11001101
Canberra 1 00001102
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11001101
Hobart 2 01001102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 5 13211111
Mawson 8 10011125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2121 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
01 Apr 8 G0
02 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Mar. Mostly G0 activity was observed in the
Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson
at the end of the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 31-Mar to 02-Apr, with a chance of G1 on 31-Mar due to ongoing
coronal hole high stream wind speed effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications on UT day 30-Mar were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 31-Mar
to 02-Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are probable on 31-Mar to 01-Apr,
and possible on 02-Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on
29 March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Mar were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced on 30-Mar and near predicted monthly
values on 01-02 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are probable on 31-Mar
to 01-Apr, and possible on 02-Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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