[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 24 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 0134UT probable all West Pacific
M1.2 0434UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0655UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.4 0709UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.1 0739UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1129UT possible lower European
M1.3 1247UT possible lower European
M1.9 1337UT possible lower European
M5.2 1352UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 209/160
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2 chance, R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Mar reached R3, with a long
duration X1 level solar flare from both AR3615 (S12W01, beta-gamma-delta)
and AR3614 (N21W04) from 23/0132 UT contributing to the Xray
flux. Approximately eleven other R1-R2 level solar flares were
observed with AR3615. AR3615 is currently the most complex sunspot
region on the solar disk and has a high potential for solar activity.
This region has grown significantly in the past 24 hours. AR3617
(S15E29, alpha) has also shown some minor growth over the past
day, otherwise all other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity
is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 24-26 Mar.
A full halo CME was observed at 23/0125 UT. The source of the
CME may be from near AR3614, of which significant coronal dimming
can be observed as well as post flare arcades. A secondary CME
may also have been launched from AR3615 shortly after, although
it is difficult to distinguish in available imagery. This CME
activity has been modelled and is expected to impact Earth near
the end of UT day 24-Mar to early 25-Mar. No other CMEs were
observed on 23-Mar.
An increase to the 10 MeV, 50 MeV and 100
MeV protons was observed associated with the X1 solar flare.
The 10 MeV protons have reached a peak of 956 pfu, slightly under
the S3 solar radiation storm threshold. At time of writing, an
S2 solar radiation storm is ongoing. S2, declining to S1 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected over 24-25 Mar.
Earth
fell under influence of a coronal hole wind stream on 23-Mar.
The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 509 km/s and is currently
near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+11 to -14 nT. Several periods of sustained southward Bz were
observed on 23-Mar. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated
from the coronal hole on 24-Mar, followed by a further increase
due to the expected CME arrival. Solar wind speeds are expected
to be elevated on 25-Mar, declining by 26-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 20 34234344
Darwin 18 34234334
Townsville 24 34245344
Learmonth 25 33245345
Alice Springs 19 33235334
Gingin 20 33234444
Canberra 21 34334344
Kennaook Cape Grim 22 34334444
Hobart 21 34333444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 29 34543544
Casey 21 44333434
Mawson 35 25632455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3333 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 30 G1 initially, then G2-G3 with a slight chance
of G4
25 Mar 40 G2-G3 with a slight chance of G4
26 Mar 20 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 23 March
and is current for 25-26 Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23-Mar, with mostly
the low latitude sites experiencing G1 geomagnetic conditions.
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at the beginning
of UT day 24-Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions with a slight chance
of G4 are expected by the end of 24-Mar leading into the beginning
of 25-Mar. These conditions are expected to ease to G1-G2 by
26-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 23 03 2024 0805UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal-fair Fair Poor(PCA)
25 Mar Fair Poor-fair Poor
26 Mar Fair Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Mar were
mostly normal in low latitudes, normal to fair in middle latitudes
and poor in high latitudes due to a polar cap absorption (PCA)
event.
The PCA event is expected to continue over 24-25 Mar,
such that HF conditions in high latitudes are expected to be
poor. In addition, HF conditions are expected to be fair to poor
over 24-26 Mar due to expected geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values initially, then
depressed 20-30%
25 Mar 80 Depressed 20-30%
26 Mar 75 Depressed 20-30%, possibly returning to near
predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued
on 23 March and is current for 25-26 Mar. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 31 was issued on 23 March and is current for 24-26 Mar.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 23-Mar were near predicted values mostly; with some depressions
in the southern regions and enhancements in the northern regions.
Spread-F was observed at southern Australian sites such as Hobart
and Perth. A HF fadeout may have affected lower frequencies of
radio communication between 23/0108 - 0512 UT in the Australian
region, with the most impacts likely around 0134 UT.
MUFs are
expected to become depressed by 20-30% by the beginning of UT
day 25-Mar, with depressions continuing over 25-26 Mar due to
current and expected geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 25400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list