[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 23 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.3 2032UT confirmed lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 198/150
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 190/143 188/141
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Mar was at the R1 level
due to a short duration M4.2 flare from solar region AR3615(S12E10,
beta-gamma-delta). This region consists of numerous small spots
which are currently growing and is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk. A narrow northward ribbon of
plasma ejecta was observed in SDO imagery from solar region AR3614(N21E09,
beta) at 22/1336UT in association with a minor C8.4 flare. There
are currently nine numbered regions visible on the solar disk.
All other numbered regions are minor and stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 23-25 Mar. No significantly
Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 22-Mar. At this stage it
doesn't appear that the M4 flare had an associated CME. A narrow
northward directed CME was observed in association with the narrow
north directed plasma ejecta and C8 flare. This event has been
modelled as an predominately an Earth miss with only a very slight
chance of a weak arrival on 26-Mar. The solar wind speed ranged
from 319 km/s to 381 km/s and is currently at around 346 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -6
nT. An increase in solar wind speed is expected on 24-Mar due
to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole now located west of the solar central meridian. There is
a slight chance of very weak component CME arrivals on 25-Mar
and 26-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 33341101
Darwin 11 33342201
Townsville 13 34342212
Learmonth 9 33341100
Alice Springs 10 33342101
Gingin 7 33231100
Canberra 8 23341100
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23341100
Hobart 7 23331100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 22320000
Casey 12 34431111
Mawson 19 55332113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27 3232 5653
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 8 G0
24 Mar 18 Initially G0, then G1 periods
25 Mar 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 22 March
and is current for 24-25 Mar. G0 conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 22-Mar. A weak (10nT) impulse
was observed at 22/1112UT with a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with G1 conditions observed at Mawson. G1 periods are
expected during the interval 24-25 Mar due to high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole. There is a slight
chance for very weak CME component arrivals over 25-26 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
25 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Mar were
mostly fair to normal, with slightly degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. Fair to normal
conditions are expected 24-25 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Learmonth MUFs depressed 15-35% local day.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Perth MUFs depressed 15-30% local day.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 120 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Mar 120 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on
22 March and is current for 22-24 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-Mar were near predicted
monthly values. Perth and Learmonth MUFs were depressed 15-35%
during the local day. Spread F was observed during local night
hours. Mild phase scintillation was observed at Darwin 22/12-16UT.
A brief fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies was observed at
Niue due to the M4 flare. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced during 23-34 Mar, with mildly
depressed conditions possible on 25-Mar for the southern Australian
region. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 33000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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