[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 25 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 23/2349UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0125UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.0 0152UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.7 0218UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0403UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.2 0606UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0751UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1218UT possible lower European
M1.0 1234UT possible lower European
M1.2 1314UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 205/156 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Mar reached R1. There were
approximately nine low-level M-class solar flares, all originating
from AR3615 (S13W12, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3615 is the most
magnetically complex spot on the disk, t has shown some growth
and redistribution of its spots although its main delta spot
has weakened. AR3619 (N19E22, alpha) has shown some minor growth,
and all other spots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
over 25-27 Mar is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance of R3, predominantly
due to AR3615.
A CME was observed at 24/0324 UT but is not correlated
with any on-disk activity and is assumed not to be geoeffective.
A prominence eruption was observed from 24/1521 UT on the southwest
solar limb and was associated with a CME that was observed from
24/1600 UT. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No other
CMEs were observed on 24-Mar.
An S2 level solar radiation storm
was observed on 24-Mar until 1950 UT, where it fell to S1 conditions.
The 10 MeV protons peaked at 718 pfu and are now currently near
50 pfu. S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected on 25-Mar,
but declining to background levels over 26-27 Mar.
A strong shock
was observed in the solar wind at 24/1411 UT, which was identified
as the arrival of the full halo CME that was observed on 23-Mar.
The maximum solar wind speed that was observed was 880 km/s and
it is currently near 800 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 34 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) was -27 nT to +29 nT. An equatorial coronal hole
wind stream may have also contributed to these enhanced solar
wind conditions. The solar wind environment is expected to remain
enhanced on 25-Mar due to ongoing CME and coronal hole effects,
but is expected to return to back ground levels over 26-27 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: G2
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 36 43336653
Darwin 34 43336643
Townsville 34 43336643
Learmonth 44 43337653
Alice Springs 34 43336643
Gingin 43 53336663
Canberra 29 42335643
Kennaook Cape Grim 37 42346653
Hobart 39 42335753
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 84 44457874
Casey 89 55545955
Mawson 72 54446865
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 34
Planetary 70
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 33 3543 4455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 26 G1-G2, slight chance G3
26 Mar 14 G0, chance G1
27 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 23 March
and is current for 24-26 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were initially G0, although planetary conditions were
G1-G2 due to coronal hole activity. At 24/1411 UT a strong shock
in the solar wind was observed, indicating the arrival of the
full halo CME that was first observed on 23-Mar. A moderate (71nT)
impulse was observed at 1436UT. Australian region geomagnetic
conditions then reached a peak of G2, although Hobart and Learmonth
reported an isolated period of G3 each. Planetary geomagnetic
conditions reached G4. Auroras may have been visible at high
to middle latitudes during local night hours.
Conditions are
expected to ease on 25-Mar, although periods of G1-G2 are expected
initially, with a slight chance for G3. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are then expected over 26-27 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 23 03 2024 0805UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal-fair Fair Poor(PCA)
26 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications on UT day 24-Mar were mostly
normal at low latitudes and fair to poor at middle to high latitudes.
Fair to poor conditions were due to significant geomagnetic activity
that was observed on 24-Mar. Polar cap absorption (PCA) contributed
to poor conditions in high latitudes. HF radio conditions are
expected to be degraded over 25-26 Mar due to the geomagnetic
activity, but are expected to begin recovering by 27-Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 80 Near predicted predicted values to 20-40% depressed
26 Mar 80 Depressed 20-40%
27 Mar 90 Depressed 20-40%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on
23 March and is current for 24-26 Mar. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 32 was issued on 24 March and is current for 24-26 Mar.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Mar were near
predicted values in the Australian region, with 30% depressions
in the southern Australian regions. MUF depressions were due
to significant geomagnetic activity that occurred on 24-Mar.
Some spread-F was observed in Hobart. A polar cap absorption
event (PCA) has been ongoing and is affecting ionospheric conditions
in the polar regions.
MUFs are expected to be initially near
predicted values on 25-Mar but may become depressed by 20-40%
over 26-27 Mar. The PCA event is expected to affect ionospheric
conditions in the polar regions on 25-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 16.5 p/cc Temp: 56700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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