[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 20 10:30:55 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0229UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 175/129 172/126
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Mar was at the R1 level
due to an M1.4 flare at 19/0229UT from AR3615 (S12E47, gamma).
Several C-class flares were observed over the UT day, the majority
of which were produced by AR3615 and AR3616 (N01W44, beta). There
are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3614 (N21E46, beta-delta) is
the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has
shown some decay in its trailer spots. AR3615 has exhibited spot
development over the UT day, particularly in its intermediate
spots. An unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern
limb near S15E82 (beta) and appears stable. All other active
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 20-22 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A southward CME was observed, visible in
STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 19/0338UT. This CME is associated
with a prominence eruption visible in GOES SUVI imagery at 19/0141UT
and is not considered to be Earth-directed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 19-Mar increased, ranging from 360 to 410 km/s and
is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to mildly increase over 20-21 Mar due to a CME arrival from a
filament eruption first observed on 17-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 32221111
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 6 32121112
Learmonth 6 32221112
Alice Springs 5 32121111
Gingin 6 32211112
Canberra 4 22111111
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 32211111
Hobart 5 32211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 22332100
Casey 11 34421121
Mawson 19 54222225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0000 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 12 G0, chance of G1
21 Mar 8 G0
22 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
20-22 Mar, with a chance of G1 on 20-Mar due to the possible
arrival of a weak CME first observed on 17-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 20-22 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 20-22 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 16300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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