[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 19 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0414UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.7 1919UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Mar was at the R2 level
due to an M6.7 flare at 18/1919UT from AR3615 (S12E61, gamma).
Two low level M-class flares were also observed, with an M2.7
at 18/0332UT and an M1.0 at 18/0414UT. There are currently seven
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. AR3615 is
the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has
exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR3607 (S17W34, beta)
and AR3616 (N01W30, beta) have also shown spot development. AR3614
(N16E56, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3608
(N09W25, beta) has exhibited minor growth. All other active regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 19-21 Mar. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 18-Mar, with the 10 MeV proton flux gradually
declining to background levels over the UT day. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 19-21 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 18-Mar was
mostly stable, ranging from 280 to 355 km/s and is currently
near 355 km/s. A minor shock in the solar wind speed was observed
at 18/1941UT, indicative of a weak CME arrival. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -9 nT. A sustained period
of southward IMF conditions was observed from 18/1815 and is
ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels on 19-Mar before mildly increasing over 20-21 Mar due
to a CME arrival from a filament eruption first observed on 17-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11100022
Darwin 2 11100022
Townsville 3 11100023
Learmonth 2 11000022
Alice Springs 2 01000022
Gingin 3 10100032
Canberra 1 00000012
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 00100022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 00000012
Casey 7 31310023
Mawson 12 10100055
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 12 G0, chance G1
20 Mar 12 G0, chance G1
21 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 19-21 Mar, with a chance of G1 on 19-Mar due to ongoing
effects from a weak CME arrival and a chance of G1 on 20-Mar
due to the expected arrival of a weak CME first observed on 17-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 19-21 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on
17 March and is current for 17-19 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Mar were near predicted
monthly values to 20-35% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Darwin and Weipa at 18/1059-1410UT. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 19-21 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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