[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 18 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 162/116
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 17-Mar was at the R0 level, with several
C-class flares observed.
There are currently six numbered active sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. The largest region is, the
newly numbered, AR3614 (N16E72, alpha) which has recently rotated
onto the solar disk and appears stable. AR3607 (S17W18, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and showed
development over the UT day. AR3608 (N09W09, beta) and AR3613
(S23W27, beta) both also showed spot development, but are magnetically
simple. All other numbered sunspot regions are stable. The sunspot
region which produced a pair of M-class flares on 16-Mar is now
visible on the solar disk as an unnumbered region at S12W80.
Foreshortening due to proximity to the eastern limb makes the
magnetic classification difficult to determine but it appears to
have complex magnetic characteristics with a possible beta-gamma
configuration. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 18-20 Mar.
The >10 MeV proton flux is currently elevated, but below the S1 level
and declining. S0 conditions are expected over 18-20 Mar.
A faint partial halo CME, directed broadly to the southwest, is visible
from 17/0336UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. A brighter component is also
visible, directed to the south. This event is associated with a long
filament lift off centered around S34W20 and visible from 17/0138UT in
H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. The majority of this filament is
directed to the south, explaining the brighter southward directed component.
Modelling indicates that there is a chance of a glancing impact with
Earth on 20-Mar at 1300UT +/- 12 hours. This impact is not expected to
be significant. No other CMEs were observed on 17-Mar.
The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Mar was in decline, ranging from 282
to 443 km/s and is currently near 285 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz)
range was +4 to -2 nT. A slight increase in solar wind speed is possible
early on UT day 18-Mar due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 15-Mar.
The solar wind speed is expected to return to background levels and remain
there on 19-Mar. A further slight increase is possible on 20-Mar due to
a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 17-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 0 10100000
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 11100001
Canberra 0 01100000
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 13310010
Mawson 1 02200000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
19 Mar 5 G0
20 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 18-Mar due to a possible
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 15-Mar. G0 conditions
are expected over 19-20 Mar, with a further chance of G1 on 20-Mar
due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on
17-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0015UT 16/03, Ended at 1450UT 16/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Poor Poor Poor
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 18-20 Mar. Minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on
17 March and is current for 17-19 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 17-Mar were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with enhancements of up to 15%
in the southern Australian region during local night. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Niue at 17/0928UT and 17/0948UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 18-20
Mar. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 63500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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