[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 17 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 1635UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2156UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Mar was at the R1 level, due to an M3.5
flare at 16/1635UT and an M1.1 flare at 16/2156UT. Both of these flares were
produced by a region over the eastern limb and not yet visible on the solar
disk.
There are currently six numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. Newly
numbered region AR3613 (S23W17, beta) is the largest visible active region and
showed spot development over the UT day. However, this region is magnetically
simple and has no history of significant flaring activity. AR3608 (N09E02,
alpha) also showed spot development on 16-Mar, but is also simple and has no
flaring history. The most notable active region is one that is yet to rotate
onto the solar disk at around S17 which produced two M-class flares on 16-Mar.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Mar.
The >10 MeV proton flux is currently elevated, but below the S1 level. S0
conditions are expected over 17-19 Mar, but there is a chance of S1 conditions
on 17-Mar if further flaring activity occurs close to the western limb.
Multiple faint CMEs were observed over the UT day, but none are considered
geoeffective. Two filament liftoffs were visible on the solar disk on 16-Mar.
One from 16/0409UT at around N08W05 visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery. A further liftoff was observed from 16/0830UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and
H-Alpha imagery at around S29E12. Neither of these events have produced a
visible CME in available coronagraph imagery.
The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Mar was mostly stable, ranging from 353 to 474
km/s and is currently near 385 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -2 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background levels until a possible
slight increase late on 17-Mar or early on 18-Mar. The solar wind speed is
expected to return to background levels on 19-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 21101001
Learmonth 1 11110001
Alice Springs 0 00100001
Gingin 1 21000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 10 44321001
Mawson 2 21101011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3211 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
18 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
19 Mar 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 17-18 Mar due to a possible
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 15-Mar. G0 conditions
are expected on 19-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0015UT 16/03, Ended at 1450UT 16/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 17-19 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Mar were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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