[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 March 24 issued 2331 UT on 15 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 16 10:32:00 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Mar was at the R0 level,
with a long duration C-class flare observed from around 15/0240UT
to 15/0800UT, peaking at the C6 level. There are currently five
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. Recently rotated
off region AR3599 (S13W94, unknown) was responsible for the long
duration C6 flare. AR3607 (S17E08, beta) is the largest region
visible on the solar disk, but it is small and magnetically simple
and showed decay over the UT day. There are no magnetically complex
regions currently visible on the solar disk. All other numbered
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 16-18 Mar. S1 conditions were observed
from 15/2050UT, although the flux has since dropped below the
S1 level. The source for the increase in proton flux is likely
the long duration C6 flare off the western limb. S0-S1 conditions
are expected on 16-Mar, S0 conditions are expected on 17-18 Mar.
A large, west directed CME was observed from 15/0210UT in SOHO
and STEREO-A imagery. This event is associated with the long
duration C6 flare from 15/0240UT and the S1 solar radiation conditions.
An eruption is visible in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery
off the western limb from 15/0144UT at around S20. Modelling
indicates that the vast majority of the ejected material will
pass ahead of Earth, however there is a chance of a glancing
impact on 18-Mar at 0300UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed
on UT day 15-Mar was mostly stable, ranging from 371 to 481 km/s
and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain steady on 16-Mar, a slight increase is possible from
the second half of 17-Mar or the first half of 18-Mar due to
a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 15-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21211101
Darwin 4 22211101
Townsville 4 22211101
Learmonth 3 22111100
Alice Springs 3 21111101
Gingin 3 31111000
Canberra 3 21211001
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 21211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 22220000
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 18 54432113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1212 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 8 G0
17 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
18 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 16-Mar. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
17-18 Mar due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 15-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 16-18 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Mar were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 16-18 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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