[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 15 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0604UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Mar was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.0 flare at 14/0604UT from AR3599 (S14W96, beta-gamma).
This region has now rotated over the western limb. There are
currently four numbered active regions visible on the solar disk
and one unnumbered region. AR3607 (S17E22, beta) is the largest
region on the solar disk and has shown some decay in its leader
spots. An unnumbered region recently appeared near N25W42 (beta)
and has shown spot growth. All other active regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 15-17 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
from 14/0754UT centred near N42W00. A subsequent associated northward
CME is visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery at 14/0923UT.
Modelling indicates this CME will pass above the Earth. The solar
wind speed on UT day 14-Mar was mostly stable, ranging from 435
to 475 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF
conditions was observed from 14/2050-2300UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decrease to background levels over 15-17 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22111222
Darwin 6 23111222
Townsville 7 23121222
Learmonth 6 22211222
Alice Springs 5 22111222
Gingin 5 22210222
Canberra 5 12121222
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12220222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 12110221
Casey 18 45432123
Mawson 14 24323224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1032 3431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 10 G0
16 Mar 8 G0
17 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 15-17 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Mar were
normal to fair. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 15-17 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
15% depressed. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 15-17 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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