[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 14 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3607 (S17E32, beta) is the largest region and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR3606 (N09E16, beta) has shown
decay in its trailer spots whilst its leader spot has exhibited
minor growth. AR3599 (S13W82, alpha) appears to have decayed
and will soon rotate over the western limb. An unnumbered region
is visible near N30E81 (alpha) and appears stable. All other
active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 14-16 Mar, with a chance
of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A broad north
directed CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery
from 13/0938UT. This CME is considered a farside event and therefore
not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Mar declined,
ranging from 390 to 470 km/s and is currently near 435 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7
nT. Two sustained periods of southward IMF conditions were observed
from 13/0430-0730UT and 13/1345-1745UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to mildly increase over 14-16 Mar due to the combined
effects of a western equatorial coronal hole and a possible weak
CME graze.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 20322311
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 7 21322311
Townsville 6 10322311
Learmonth 8 20322411
Alice Springs 6 10322311
Gingin 6 20222321
Canberra 7 11322311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 00433520
Casey 10 23322322
Mawson 21 41423543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2002 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 16 G0, slight chance G1
15 Mar 10 G0
16 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Mar were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 14-16 Mar, with a chance of fair conditions
at high latitudes on 14-Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Mar were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Mar.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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