[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 13 10:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Mar was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3599(S13W67, beta-gamma-delta), currently the
largest and most complex region on the solar disk produced only
low level C class flare activity in the past 24 hours. Penumbral
area of the leader spots of AR3599 has increased, with the trailer
spots showing decline, as the region approaches the southwest
solar limb. Solar regions AR3606(N09E32, beta) and AR3607(S17E47,
beta) are showing growth. There are currently five numbered regions
on the solar disk. All other active regions are either stable
or in decay. A 10 degree long solar filament located at S25W45
erupted during 12/1747-1838UT in GONG H-alpha imagery. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level over 13-15 Mar.
Several CMEs were observed but none are considered to be Earth
directed. A faint westward CME was observed from 12/1016UT in
LASCO C2 imagery but could not be correlated with on disk activity.
The erupting filament did not as yet appear to have an associated
CME (available images up to 12/1848UT). The solar wind speed
on UT day 12-Mar was steady, ranging from 410 to 420 km/s and
is currently near 375 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. An isolated equatorial coronal hole
located west of the solar central meridian and a possible weak
CME graze are expected to cause a mild increase in wind speed
during 14-15 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21121201
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 3 21111102
Townsville 3 11121201
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 4 21121201
Gingin 5 31121201
Canberra 3 21121101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 11042300
Casey 9 34321111
Mawson 9 42322210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1122 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 8 G0
14 Mar 16 G0, slight chance G1
15 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 12-Mar. Generally G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 13-15 Mar, with a coronal hole wind
stream together with a chance of a weak CME graze expected to
produce a mild increase in geomagnetic activity for 14-15 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Mar were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 13-15 Mar, with a chance of fair conditions
at high latitudes on 14-Mar. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 50% enhanced.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
11 March and is current for 11-13 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Mar were generally
near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of 50% were observed
at Darwin late in the local day and during local night hours.
Minor scintillation was observed at Darwin and Weipa 12/12-15UT.
Minor spread F was observed at Perth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 13-15
Mar. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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