[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 12 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Mar was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3599(S13W51, beta-gamma-delta) has shown a mix
of growth and decay, with development evident in intermediate
spots and redistribution visible in its trailer spot. A new small
solar region has emerged at N10E45. There are currently four
numbered and one unnumbered region on the solar disk. All other
active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 12-14 Mar, with a chance
of R2. Several CMEs were observed but none are considered to
be Earth directed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Mar declined,
ranging from 354 to 420 km/s and is currently near 360 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4
nT. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible just to the
west of the solar central meridian and is expected to cause a
mild increase in wind speed from 14-15 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111102
Cocos Island 4 1220----
Darwin 3 11211102
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 4 2111----
Alice Springs 3 21111102
Gingin 3 20211101
Canberra 2 11102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 01221000
Casey 11 34431101
Mawson 5 22311101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1123 1231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 6 G0
13 Mar 8 G0
14 Mar 16 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 11-Mar. Generally G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 12-13 Mar, with a coronal hole wind
stream is expected to produce a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity for 14-15 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Mar were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 12-14 Mar, with a chance of fair conditions
at high latitudes on 14-Mar. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
11 March and is current for 11-13 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Mar were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed near dawn at Perth. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 12-14 Mar.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 74300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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