[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 11 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.4 1213UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Mar was at the R2 level
due to an M7.4 flare at 10/1213UT from AR3599 (S13W40, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently five numbered active regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3599 is the largest and most magnetically complex
region. This region has shown some decay in its intermediate
spots, but regained its delta spot over the previous UT day.
AR3604 (N08E05, beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots.
All other active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 11-13 Mar, with
a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A type II radio burst was observed at 10/1208UT
in association with the aforementioned R2 flare. A weak, low
velocity associated CME is visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
from 10/1248UT to the northwest. Modelling indicates the bulk
of this CME is directed ahead of the Earth. A high velocity,
east directed CME observed at 09/2224UT is considered a farside
event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Mar
was mostly stable, ranging from 390 to 465 km/s and is currently
near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 11-13 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11220321
Cocos Island 4 11120320
Darwin 4 11120222
Townsville 6 11221321
Learmonth 6 21220322
Alice Springs 6 11220331
Gingin 6 11220331
Canberra 5 11220321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 11131220
Casey 17 35422332
Mawson 24 23222645
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3322 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 8 G0
12 Mar 6 G0
13 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Mar. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 11-13 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Mar were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 11-13 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 11-13 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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