[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 10 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. AR3599 (S13W26,
beta) is the largest region on the solar disk and has shown some
decay in its intermediate spots over the UT day. This region
has also reduced in magnetic complexity. AR3605 (S15E02, beta)
has exhibited mild growth in its intermediate spots. All other
active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 10-12 Mar, with a chance
of R1. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
A prominence eruption was observed, visible in GOES SUVI imagery
from the southeastern limb at 09/0209UT. A subsequent southeast
directed CME was observed in coronagraph imagery from 09/0400UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 09-Mar was mostly stable, ranging from 400 to 495 km/s
and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed may mildly increase
on 10-Mar due to a recent filament eruption, before declining
over 11-12 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 32222122
Cocos Island 5 32111121
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 7 32222122
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 7 32222122
Gingin 8 32222222
Canberra 7 --231122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 23142021
Casey 29 56542123
Mawson 40 65322174
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2320 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 12 G0, slight chance G1
11 Mar 8 G0
12 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Mar. Mostly G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 10-12 Mar, with a slight chance of G1 on 10-Mar
due to a possible glancing impact from a recent solar filament
eruption and possible minor influence from a small coronal hole
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 10-12 Mar. Mild degradations are possible
for high latitudes on 10-Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Mar were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Mar.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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