[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 9 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2126UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 127/80 125/78 127/80
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Mar was at the R1 level
due to an M1.3 flare at 08/2126UT from AR3599 (S12W14, beta-gamma).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3599 is the most magnetically complex region on
the solar disk and has exhibited recent spot development in its
intermediate spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 09-11 Mar. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed, visible in GOES
SUVI imagery at 08/0933UT near N40E50. A subsequent faint, northeast
directed CME is visible in coronagraph imagery from 08/1136UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 08-Mar initially declined before increasing at 08/0400UT,
ranging from 410 to 530 km/s and is currently near 490 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6
nT. A sustained period of mildly southward IMF conditions begun
at 08/1835UT and is ongoing. The solar wind speed may mildly
increase over 09-10 Mar due to a recent filament eruption, before
declining on 11-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 23212113
Cocos Island 4 22201012
Darwin 6 23212112
Townsville 6 23212112
Learmonth 8 23212123
Alice Springs 6 22212013
Gingin 7 22212123
Canberra 6 232120--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 12203112
Casey 23 45542223
Mawson 27 45422255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2222 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
10 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
11 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 09-11 Mar, with a chance of G1 over 09-10 Mar due
to a possible glancing impact from a recent solar filament eruption
and possible minor influence from a small coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 09-11 Mar. Mild degradations are possible
for high latitudes over 09-10 Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Mar were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 Mar. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 61300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list