[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 8 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered regions on the solar disk. Solar regions currently on
the visible solar disk are relatively small. Solar region AR3599(S12E02,
beta) continues to develop with spot redistribution evident and
produced several C class flares with the largest a C8.3 at 07/0618UT.
Earlier in the UT day this region exhibited a more complex though
weak beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A new small region is
emerging at S17E34. Other regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar filament motion was observed in the southeast solar quadrant
07/0600-0700UT in SDO304 imagery. Learmonth GONG imagery showed
a small northward section of filament possibly erupting at 07/0847UT
located at S17E15. However no CME appeared associated with these
events. Small localised coronal diming was observed to the southwest
of solar region AR3602(N18W09, beta) at 07/1236UT in SDO193 imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 over 08-10 Mar,
with low level R class flare activity becoming more likely from
AR3599. S0 conditions were observed on 07-Mar and are expected
over 08-10 Mar. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A narrow CME was observed to the north-northwest from 07/1336UT.
Later a more north westward and presumed far side event was observed
from 07/1624UT. A model run was conducted assuming with low confidence
that the minor on disk diming and the steep and narrow north-northwest
CME are associated. The model run showed an Earth miss with the
CME passing above the Earth. The solar wind speed was steady
on 07-Mar, ranging from 366 to 466 km/s and is currently near
435 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels over 08-Mar. A mild increase in wind speed
may be observed from mid 09-Mar/early 10-Mar due to the filament
eruption on 05-Mar. A very small isolated equatorial coronal
hole now in the western solar hemisphere may slightly increase
wind speed 09-10 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 32332332
Cocos Island 9 31222332
Darwin 11 32332322
Townsville 12 32332332
Learmonth 13 42332332
Alice Springs 12 32332332
Gingin 13 31332342
Canberra 8 21322322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 10 21223422
Casey 18 43532233
Mawson 22 33343354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1312 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 8 G0
09 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
10 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Mar. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with one isolated period of G1 conditions
observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected
over 08-10 Mar. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity may be
experienced from mid 09-Mar to first half of 10-Mar due to possible
graze from a recent solar filament eruption/CME and possible
minor influence from a small coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Mar were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are generally expected
to be mostly normal over 08-10 Mar. Mild degradation possible
for high latitudes 09-10 Mar. Isolated minor HF fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Mar were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 08-10 Mar.
Isolated minor HF fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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