[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 7 10:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flares observed. There are currently eight
numbered active regions on the solar disk. The solar regions
currently on the disk are relatively small, with region AR3599(S12E15,
beta) the largest and more complex region which has shown development
in the past 24 hours. A 15 degree long solar filament located
to the far west at S15W70 erupted during 06/1025-1035UT. A very
small filament located at S30E05 erupted at 06/1148UT. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of
R1 over 07-09 Mar. S0 conditions were observed on 06-Mar and
are expected over 07-09 Mar. No new significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. Yesterday, a solar filament located
at S25E30 erupted from 05/2108UT, with the associated mainly
southward CME modelled as more likely to pass below the Earth.
There is a slight chance the top of the CME could graze the underside
of the Earth's magnetosphere mid 09-Mar/early 10-Mar. Today's
far west filament eruption had an associated very slow westward
CME which has been modelled as an Earth miss. Earlier in the
UT day CMEs to the north from 06/0312UT and west from 06/0412UT
were observed and are considered far side/limb events. No CME
appeared evident with the very small filament eruption. The solar
wind speed was steady on 06-Mar, ranging from 349 to 458 km/s
and is currently near 372 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is generally expected
to remain near background levels over 07-09 Mar. A mild increase
in wind speed may be observed from mid 09-Mar/early 10-Mar due
to the filament eruption on 05-Mar. A very small isolated coronal
hole currently located at S10W20 may slightly increase wind speed
09-10 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12122101
Cocos Island 3 12122100
Darwin 4 22122101
Townsville 4 12122101
Learmonth 4 22122101
Alice Springs 3 12122100
Gingin 4 22122101
Canberra 4 12122101
Hobart 3 12122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 12124100
Casey 11 25322201
Mawson 8 24222201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 3121 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 8 G0
08 Mar 8 G0
09 Mar 16 G0, chance of a G1 period late in the UT day
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Mar. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with one isolated period of G1 conditions
observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
07-09 Mar. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity may be experienced
from mid 09-Mar to first half of 10-Mar due to a possible graze
from a recent solar filament eruption/CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-Mar were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 07-09 Mar. Mild degradation possible for high
latitudes 09-10 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Mar were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 07-09 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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