[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 March 24 issued 2331 UT on 05 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 6 10:31:14 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flares observed.
There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. The largest region is AR3595
(N20W73, beta) which appeared stable over the UT day. All
regions on the solar disk are of low magnetic complexity.
AR3599 (S13E27, beta) showed development over the UT day but
does not currently appear magnetically complex. All other
numbered sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. An
unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar disk
at around N08E72 with beta magnetic complexity. This region
appears stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with a
chance of R1 over 06-08 Mar.
S0 conditions were observed on 05-Mar and are expected over
06-08 Mar.
Several slow CMEs were observed on 05-Mar, but none are
expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed was steady on 05-Mar, ranging from 362 to
474 km/s and is currently near 415 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -6 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 06-08 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 3 22211010
Darwin 4 22211002
Townsville 4 21211112
Learmonth 5 22211112
Alice Springs 3 22211001
Gingin 5 21211122
Canberra 3 12211001
Hobart 5 22311111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 12311110
Casey 15 35422122
Mawson 14 43322242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 5 G0
07 Mar 8 G0
08 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Mar. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with one isolated period of G1 conditions
observed at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Mar were
generally fair to poor for the first few hours of the day at
mid to high latitudes. Conditions improved over the day with
mostly normal conditions observed at low to mid latitudes and
mostly fair conditions observed at high latitudes. Conditions
were generally better in the northern hemisphere.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 06-08 Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Mar were
near predicted monthly values with enhancements of up to 15%
observed during local night observed at Darwin. Spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over
06-08 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 94300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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