[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 5 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flares observed.
There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk.
The largest and most significant region is AR3595 (N20W60, beta)
which displayed trailer spot development over the UT day. This
region has not produced any significant flares. AR3601 (N14W20, beta)
, AR3602 (N19E30, beta) and newly numbered AR3603 (N13E55, beta)
all displayed spot development on 04-Mar, however all these regions
are small and magnetically simple.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of
R1 over 05-07 Mar.
Several slow CMEs were observed on 04-Mar, but none are expected
to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on 04-Mar increased slightly and ranged
from 298 to 466 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +14 to -8 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 05-07 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 32211112
Cocos Island 7 33211112
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 6 31221122
Alice Springs 6 31221112
Gingin 6 32211112
Canberra 4 21211111
Hobart 4 22211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 32221000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 16 43333224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 34 2002 5664
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 8 G0
06 Mar 5 G0
07 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Mar. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with one isolated period of G1 conditions
observed at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Fair-normal Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Mar were
generally fair to poor in the southern hemisphere, with the worst
conditions at high latitudes and fair to normal conditions at
low latitudes. Conditions were closer to fair to normal in the
northern hemisphere. These degraded conditions were due to geomagnetic
activity on 03-Mar.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 05-07 Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Mar were
depressed by up to 30% in the southern Australian region, with
the strongest depressions observed during local day. MUFs were
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Darwin and Weipa at around 1400-1500UT.
MUFs are expected to recover towards predicted monthly values
on 05-Mar. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 06-07 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 12.7 p/cc Temp: 40400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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