[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 March 24 issued 2333 UT on 03 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 4 10:33:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity. The two most magnetically
complex regions on the disk AR3595(N20W44, beta-gamma) and AR3598(S13W54,
gamma) both showed slight decline. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions and one unnumbered region on the visible
on the solar disk, with the new region located at N20E46 emerging
quite rapidly after 03/1747UT. This region whilst currently small
may continue to develop. All other sunspot regions were stable
or in decline. Solar activity is expected to be at R0, chance
R1 levels over 04-06 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Small localised plasma diming was observed in SDO193 imagery
at 03/1338-1407UT and a slow southward CME was observed in LASCO
C2 imagery from 03/1412UT. Event modelling was conducted assuming
these events are associated with results showing an Earth miss,
with the modelled minor CME passing under the magnetosphere.
The solar wind speed ranged from 257 to 374 km/s and is currently
near 352 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 20 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+13 to -18 nT. The anticipated component arrival of a recent
CME initially expected on 02-Mar arrived later than expected
with a weak solar wind shock observed at 03/0848UT. The increase
in solar wind speed was slight whilst the IMF total magnetic
field strongly increased from 3nT to 20nT post shock arrival,
with the IMF Bz component maintaining a more consistent southward
orientation of -18nT during the interval 03/1130-1839UT. The
solar wind parameter profile indicates the CME was most likely
from a filament eruption on the 28-Feb. The ACE EPAM precursor
flux slightly increasing just before the shock arrival indicating
a weak indirect CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 11144453
Cocos Island 2 110-----
Darwin 17 12244443
Townsville 21 11244454
Learmonth 21 11145453
Alice Springs 17 01144353
Gingin 27 21135563
Canberra 19 11144453
Hobart 26 11135563
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 49 00026774
Casey 20 24244344
Mawson 16 42033443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 20 G0-G1
05 Mar 12 G0
06 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Mar. In the Antarctic region G2-G3 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island during the second half of the
Ut day and G0 conditions observed at Casey and Mawson. The anticipated
component CME arrival initially expected for 02-Mar arrived later
than expected on 03-Mar with a weak (22nT) impulse was observed
at 03/0958UT. G1 periods were observed in the Australian region
after the sudden impulse. The planetary conditions reached G1-G2
03/12-21UT. Generally, G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
04-06 Mar, with further isolated G1 periods possible early on
04-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Mar were
mostly normal for the first half of the UT day becoming degraded
at middle to high latitudes during the second half of the UT
day due to geomagnetic activity induced by a CME. HF radio communication
conditions are now expected to be poor to fair for middle to
high latitudes for the first half of the UT day 04-Mar, then
improving to normal for 05-06 Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 3 March
and is current for 4 Mar only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 03-Mar were near predicted monthly values until local
dawn this morning then depressed by 15-30% for the southern Australian
region. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Perth
and Hobart. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin
and Weipa 03/1118-1420UT. Range spread was observed on Cocos
Island and Darwin ionograms during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be depressed 15 to 20% for the southern Australian
region on 04-Mar. Northern Australian region MUFs are expected
to be 15% depressed to near normal. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 18000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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