[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 3 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and with the departure
of solar region AR3590 there is no large solar region on the
visible solar disk. Solar region AR3591(S36W26, beta), AR3595(N20W32,
beta) and AR3598(S13W41, beta) produced low to mid level C class flare
activity. Very small trailer spots emerged for minor solar region
AR3591(S36W26, beta), AR3595 showed decline in its trailer spots
and AR3598 showed development in its intermediate spots. All
other sunspot regions were stable or in decline. A very small
filament located at N09W23 erupted at 02/2014UT (GONG H-alpha).
Solar activity is expected to be at R0, chance R1 levels over
03-05 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Two recent
CMEs were observed, one in progress at the start of the UT day
to the east and another later to the south, neither are considered
to be directed at the Earth. The very small filament eruption
is considered unlikely to have any associated CME of significance.
The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Mar decreased, ranging from
280 to 354 km/s and is currently near 275 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -4 nT. The anticipated
component arrival of a recent CME has failed to eventuate and
the ACE EPAM low energy ion channel (CME precursor arrival) has
remained flat suggesting at this stage an Earth miss is now likely
for this CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11113001
Cocos Island 1 10002000
Darwin 3 11113001
Townsville 4 11113011
Learmonth 3 20013001
Alice Springs 3 11113001
Gingin 2 20102001
Canberra 1 10002000
Hobart 2 11102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 10103000
Casey 9 34322110
Mawson 12 43221224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3331 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 13 G0
04 Mar 10 G0
05 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 29 February
and is current for 2-3 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 02-Mar. The
anticipated CME component arrival for 02-Mar has failed to eventuate
and is now not expected. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
03-05 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 02-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are now expected
to be normal over 03-05 Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
29 February and is current for 1-3 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 02-Mar were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are now expected to be near predicted monthly values over 03-05
Mar. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Hobart.
Sporadic E was observed at times at Townsville. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 29400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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