[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 2 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3590 (N18W74,
beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk and is rotating over the north west
solar limb. Despite this regions size and complexity AR3590 only
produced several low C class flares in the past 24 hours. Solar
region AR3595 (N20W19, beta-gamma) is the second largest region
on the disk and has remained flare quiet, with redevelopment
evident in its trailer spots. Solar regions AR3598 (S13W28, beta-gamma)
and AR3599(S13E76, beta) each contributed a C class flare. Solar
region AR3598 is growing. AR3599 is rotating on and is too close
to the east limb for assessment. All other sunspot regions were
stable or in decline. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 02-04 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Mar slightly decreased, ranging
from 345 to 427 km/s and is currently near 354 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -5 nT, with Bz
maintaining a mild southward orientation during most of the UT
day. A moderate increase in solar wind speed is expected over
02-03 Mar due to the component arrival of a CME first observed
on 28-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21221121
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 3 11111121
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 4 22121120
Alice Springs 4 21211121
Gingin 4 21121121
Canberra 4 21211121
Hobart 5 21221221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 12332210
Casey 7 32222221
Mawson 26 55322354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1011 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 20 G1 periods
03 Mar 14 G0, chance G1
04 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 29 February
and is current for 2-3 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01-Mar. Generally G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region with G1 periods observed
at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 02-Mar due
to the component arrival of a CME first observed on 28-Feb. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 03-Mar, with a chance
of G1 periods early in the UT day as CME effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 02-04 Mar, with normal to fair conditions
for mid to high latitudes on 02-Mar due to an anticipated mild
increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
29 February and is current for 1-3 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-Mar were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values over
02-04 Mar. There is a chance for mild 15% depressions after local
dawn in the southern Australian region over 03-04 Mar if the
mild increase in geomagnetic activity forecast for 02-Mar eventuates.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 79500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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