[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 1 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Feb was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3590 (N18W63,
beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk. This region has shown some recent growth
in its intermediate spots and increased in magnetic complexity.
AR3595 (N20W08, beta-gamma) has exhibited spot development over
the UT day. Newly numbered AR3598 (S13W17, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has shown spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Returning region AR3576,
which previously produced R1-R3 level flares, is due to return
on UT day 01-Mar at a latitude of S16. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 01-03 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A west-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 29/0924UT. This CME has no
clear on-disk source and is considered a farside event. The CME
previously observed at 28/1748UT associated with the M1.5 flare
from AR3590 was modelled and is not considered significantly
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Feb decreased,
ranging from 375 to 430 km/s and is currently near 405 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline on 01-Mar, before
increasing over 02-03 Mar due to the component arrival of a CME
first observed on 28-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 2 11112001
Townsville 3 21112011
Learmonth 3 21112001
Alice Springs 2 10112001
Gingin 2 11112100
Canberra 3 11112101
Hobart 2 11112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 00103200
Casey 10 23432111
Mawson 6 22322110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1112 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 6 G0
02 Mar 20 G1
03 Mar 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 29 February
and is current for 2-3 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-Feb. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 01-Mar. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 02-Mar due to the component arrival
of a CME first observed on 28-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 03-Mar, with a chance of G1 as CME effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Feb were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 01-03 Mar, with normal to fair conditions
for mid to high latitudes on 02-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Feb 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
29 February and is current for 1-3 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
15% depressed in southern Australian regions. Sporadic E was observed
at Brisbane. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 01-03 Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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