[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 March 24 issued 2331 UT on 20 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 21 10:31:01 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 19/2327UT possible lower West Pacific
M7.4 0736UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M2.0 2255UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 176/130 174/128
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 20-Mar was at the R2 level due to an M7.4
flare at 20/0736UT and an M2.0 flare at 20/2255UT, both produced by
AR3615 (S12E33, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3615 is the largest and most magnetically
complex visible region and showed spot development over 20-Mar. AR3607
(S17W62, beta) also showed some degree of spot development, although
this region is magnetically simple and soon to rotate off the solar
disk. All other numbered regions are either stable or in decay. An
unnumbered region has developed on the solar disk at around S08W46
with beta magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 21-23 Mar.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 20-Mar. A west directed CME
was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 20/1224UT and a northeast
directed CME was observed from 20/1612UT. Both of these CMEs are
associated with activity over the limb visible due to coronal loop
movement in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 20/1014UT at N12 and 20/1535UT
at N05 respectively. Neither of these CMEs are considered geoeffective.
An eruption off the southern limb is visible from 20/1711UT in GOES
SUVI imagery but no associated CME is visible in available coronagraph
imagery. Should this event produce a CME it is unlikely to have a
significant effect on Earth due to its southward direction.
The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Mar was in decline ranging from
306 to 407 km/s and is currently near 310 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT.
There is a possibility of a mild increase in solar wind speed on 21-Mar
due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 17-Mar.
Should this not eventuate, the solar wind speed is expected to remain
near background levels over 21-23 Mar. An increase is possible late on
23-Mar due to an equatorial coronal hole which is approaching a geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11210002
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 11110002
Learmonth 4 21310012
Alice Springs 2 01110002
Gingin 4 21310012
Canberra 2 11110002
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11110001
Hobart 2 11210002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 00210001
Casey 8 33321012
Mawson 22 53211046
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3122 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 8 G0
22 Mar 5 G0
23 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Mar. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 and G2 observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-23 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 21-23 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on
20 March and is current for 20-22 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 20-Mar were near predicted
monthly values in the northern Australian region and enhanced
by up to 25% in the southern Australian region, with the strongest
enhancements visible at the end of the UT day. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 21-23
Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 90200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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