[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 29 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jun was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently 11
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3728 (S26E19,
beta) produced the largest C-class flare of the UT day and has
shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3724 (S19W14, beta) and
AR3727 (S18E25, beta) have exhibited spot growth in their trailer
spots. AR3729 (S05E42, beta) has shown growth in its leader spots.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 29-Jun to 01-Jul.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 28-Jun increased, ranging from 300 to 500 km/s and
is currently near 470 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed at
28/0910UT, indicative of a CME arrival. Further increases in
the solar wind speed were observed following the CME arrival.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 30
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +21 to -25
nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was observed
from the start of the UT day until 28/1225UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over 29-Jun to 01-Jul as
CME effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: G1
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 20 22255432
Cocos Island 13 22244331
Darwin 19 22255332
Townsville 20 22255432
Learmonth 28 33355534
Alice Springs 19 22255422
Gingin 22 32355432
Canberra 20 22255423
Kennaook Cape Grim 21 22355423
Hobart 22 23355423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 52 24377534
Casey 9 22233321
Mawson 49 66344373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 61
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 2111 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 16 G0-G1
30 Jun 10 G0
01 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 28 June and
is current for 28-29 Jun. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 28-Jun. A single period of
G4 planetary geomagnetic conditions was observed. G2-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. This geomagnetic
activity was observed due to a CME arrival. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 29-Jun, declining to G0 over 30-Jun
to 01-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Jun were
generally normal, with some degradations at high latitudes. HF
radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 29-Jun to 01-Jul, with degradations during local night hours
at high latitudes likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jun 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jul 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Jun were
near predicted values to 35% enhanced in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Darwin and Weipa from 28/1217-1440UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 29-Jun to 01-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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