[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 30 09:30:48 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jun was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently 15
numbered sunspot regions and one unnumbered region visible on
the solar disk. AR3728 (S26E03, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown development in its leader
spot. AR3729 (S05E27, beta) has shown mild development in its
intermediate spots. AR3733 (N05E30, beta) has exhibited spot
development over the UT day. Newly numbered regions AR3734 (N08E71,
beta) and AR3735 (N17E77, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern
limb and appear stable. An unnumbered region is visible near
N22W10 (alpha) and is showing mild growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. A filament eruption
was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery near S35W18 at 29/1438UT.
A subsequent southward CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery at 29/1612UT. Modelling indicates this CME
is geoeffective, with an estimated arrival at Earth at 03/0400UT
+/- 12 hours. A narrow west-directed CME observed at 29/0348UT
is not considered to be geoeffective. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Jun
mildly declined, ranging from 410 to 485 km/s and is currently
near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+11 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over
30-Jun to 02-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 23112232
Cocos Island 5 2211122-
Darwin 8 33111232
Townsville 9 33112232
Learmonth 12 33222243
Alice Springs 7 23111232
Gingin 9 33212232
Canberra 7 22112232
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22122232
Hobart 7 22122232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 11 22134331
Casey 11 33222233
Mawson 18 33323335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 66 4536 8654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 10 G0
01 Jul 8 G0
02 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Jun were
generally normal, with some degradations at high latitudes during
local night hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 30-Jun to 02-Jul, with degradations
during local night hours at high latitudes likely. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jul 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Jul 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Jun were
near predicted values in the Australian region. Spread-F was
observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Niue from 29/0811-0918UT. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 30-Jun
to 02-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 51800 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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