[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 28 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 183/136
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 182/135 182/135 182/135
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jun was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3723 (S19E18, beta) has shown some minor
growth and decay, but over all little change, and AR3728 (S26E32,
beta) has shown minor growth. All other sunspot regions are either
table or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
28-30 Jun.
A filament eruption near AR3719 (S15W38, beta) at
27/1711 UT was associated with a CME; analysis indicates this
will not be significantly geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed
in the available imagery. A filament in the solar southeast quadrant
has become unstable from 27/2028 UT and will be monitored for
any associated CME.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 27-Jun and
are expected over 28-30 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 27-Jun was near background levels.
The solar wind speed ranged from 350 to 350 km/s. The total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +10 to -7 nT. Bz has been intermittently oriented
southward since 1430 UT. The solar wind is expected to become
disturbed by the end of UT day 28-Jun due to an anticipated CME
arrival; followed by a further disturbance on 29-Jun due to another
anticipated CME arrival. CME effects will likely carry into 30-Jun
before calming down.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22112322
Cocos Island 7 -3112---
Darwin 6 21113222
Townsville 8 22113322
Learmonth 9 22213323
Alice Springs 5 21112222
Gingin 6 12112322
Canberra 4 21102212
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 21112322
Hobart 5 21102312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 10001121
Casey 7 32112312
Mawson 24 23311546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2123 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 12 G0-G1
29 Jun 16 G0-G1
30 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jun. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
initially on UT day 28-Jun, but periods of G1 may be observed
by the end of the day. Further periods of G1 are possible on
29-Jun. Conditions are expected to return to background levels
by 30-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Jun were
generally normal, with some degradations near high latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 28-30 Jun, although degradations during local night hours
are likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
29 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
30 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on
26 June and is current for 26-28 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Jun were near predicted values to 15% depressed
in the Australian region. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane and
Niue during local night hours. Sporadic-E was observed in Norfolk
Island during local night hours. Scintillation was observed in
Niue from 27/0748 UT to 27/0850 UT. MUFs are initially expected
to be near predicted values on UT day 28-Jun, but may become
depressed by 15% towards the end of the day and continue over
29-30 Jun due to multiple CME arrivals.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 42200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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