[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 27 09:30:51 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jun was R0, with only an
isolated C6 flare from AR3723 (S19E31, beta). There are currently
nine sunspot regions on the solar disk, although most regions
have not shown any significant change in the past day. AR3723
and AR3727 (S18E51, beta) have shown minor growth in their trailing
spots, but all other sunspots are stable. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 27-29 Jun.
A slow and weak CME was observed from near AR3720 (S06W15, beta)
from 25/2348 UT and is expected to arrive at Earth by 29/1900
UT +/- 10 hours. A CME directed to the solar southeast was observed
at 26/1612 UT was associated with the C6 flare from AR3723, but
is not expected to reach Earth. No other geoeffective CMEs were
observed today.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 26-Jun and
are expected over 27-29 Jun.
The solar wind environment was mostly steady on 26-Jun. The solar
wind speed was near 350 km/s for most of the day. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +11 to -9 nT. Bz was oriented southward
from 26/0604 UT to 26/1020 UT. The solar wind is expected to
be mostly near background levels on 27-Jun, then become mildly
disturbed due to a CME arrival on 28-Jun, and again from another
arrival late on 29-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 12232221
Cocos Island 5 03222110
Darwin 6 12232211
Townsville 7 12232222
Learmonth 6 12232220
Alice Springs 6 02232221
Gingin 5 11222221
Canberra 3 11122110
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11132121
Hobart 4 11131111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 00153110
Casey 7 33221112
Mawson 13 32222153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2132 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 6 G0
28 Jun 12 G0, chance G1
29 Jun 9 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in The Australian
region on UT day 26-Jun. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in Antarctica. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 27-29 Jun, with a chance for G1 on 28-Jun due to an anticipated
CME arrival and then another chance of G1 on late 29-Jun due
to another CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Jun were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 27-29 Jun, however some mild degradations
are possible during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on
26 June and is current for 26-28 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-Jun were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed in Cocos
Islands during local night hours and spread-F was observed at
Niue during local night hours. Scintillation was observed at
Niue between 1121 and 1136 UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted values over 27-29 Jun. Some mild depressions may
be observed on 29-Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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