[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 26 09:30:52 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1245UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 194/146
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 25/1245UT from AR3723 (S19E47, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3723 is the most
magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown some decay
in its intermediate spots. AR3720 (S06W01, beta) has shown decay
in its trailer spots whilst its intermediate spots have grown.
AR3727 (S19E63, beta) has exhibited spot growth over the UT day.
An unnumbered region is visible near S04E84 (beta) and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 26-28 Jun.
A large filament centred near S21E58 was observed lifting off
the disk from 24/2305UT. A subsequent west-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 25/0600UT. Modelling
indicates this CME contains a geoeffective component, with an
estimated arrival at Earth at 28/2000UT +/- 12 hours. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 25-Jun mildly increased, ranging from 290 to 355 km/s
and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 26-27 Jun. A mild increase
in the solar wind speed is possible on 28-Jun due to a component
CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11220210
Cocos Island 3 22110110
Darwin 3 11110211
Townsville 4 22110211
Learmonth 3 11220210
Alice Springs 3 11120211
Gingin 5 22221220
Canberra 4 11220211
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 10220310
Hobart 4 10220310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 00442300
Casey 4 22111121
Mawson 12 33322332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2101 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 10 G0
27 Jun 6 G0
28 Jun 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 25-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 26-28 Jun, with a chance of G1 on 28-Jun due
to a component CME arrival from a filament eruption first observed
on 25-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-Jun were
normal, with some mild degradations during local night hours
at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 26-28 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jun. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 26-28 Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 23500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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