[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Jun 25 09:30:47 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0417UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.8    0452UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    1910UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 199/151

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            200/152

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jun was at the R1 level 
due to several M-class flares, the largest of which was an M1.8 
flare produced by AR3712 (S25W90, beta) at 24/0452UT from beyond 
the western limb. There are currently seven numbered sunspot 
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. 
AR3723 (S19E59, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has 
shown some decay in its intermediate spots. AR3720 (S06E11, beta) 
has exhibited growth in its trailer spot, whilst its intermediate 
spots have decayed. An unnumbered region recently appeared near 
N11E15 (beta) and has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to 
be at R1-R2 levels over 25-27 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have 
been observed. A southwest-directed CME was observed, visible 
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 24/0348UT. This CME is likely 
associated with flare activity on the western limb. Modelling 
indicates this CME does not contain a geoeffective component. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Jun mildly declined, ranging 
from 295 to 350 km/s and is currently near 305 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -3 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over 
25-27 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         1   11010---
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   22100001
      Learmonth            1   21000000
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Gingin               1   10100001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Kennaook Cape Grim   0   10000000
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   11200001
      Mawson              13   51100015

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   1223 2333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun     6    G0
26 Jun     6    G0
27 Jun     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 24-Jun. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 25-27 Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-Jun were 
generally normal, with some mild degradations during local night 
hours at most latitudes. HF radio communication conditions are 
expected to be mostly normal over 25-27 Jun, with degradations 
during local night hours persisting. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Jun   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      121
Jun      116
Jul      117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun   105    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun   105    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on 
23 June and is current for 24-25 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian 
region on UT day 24-Jun. MUFs were depressed by 15% during local 
night in northern Australia. Spread-F was observed at several 
sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values over 25-27 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    57300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au