[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Mon Jun 24 09:30:45 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    0630UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1137UT  possible   lower  European
  M9.3    1301UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 196/148

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     R0-R1, chance R2   R0-R1, chance R2   R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jun was R2, with the biggest 
flare being M9 from AR3723 (S20E68, beta-gamma-delta). AR3723 
is returning region 3664 and 3697 returning for its third rotation 
around the solar disk, which is considered an unusually long 
lifespan for a sunspot. As the region is near the limb it is 
difficult to analyse, however from what can be seen it still 
maintains a strong magnetic complexity but has reduced in size. 
There are currently nine sunspots on the solar disk. AR3719 (S15E17, 
gamma) and AR3720 (S06E26, beta) have had some minor growth in 
their trailing regions, but otherwise no other significant change 
from any other sunspots has been noted. Solar activity is expected 
to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2-R3 over 24-Jun.

 Several CMEs were observed on UT day 23-Jun, but none were 
considered geoeffective. There was no CME associated with the
 M9 flare from AR3723. The large filament dominating the southwest
 quadrant is still mostly stable.

 S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 
23-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 
24-26 Jun. 

The solar wind environment was generally near background 
levels on 23-Jun. A mild disturbance was noted from 23/0553 that 
was associated with a period of southward Bz, possibly due to 
a co-rotating interaction region. The solar wind speed was steady 
near 250 km/s for the day. The peak total interplanetary field 
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain 
near background levels over 24-26 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   02331111
      Cocos Island         4   -22210--
      Darwin               5   12231111
      Townsville           7   12332111
      Learmonth            7   12332111
      Alice Springs        6   02331111
      Gingin               6   02331120
      Canberra             4   01231110
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   01331110
      Hobart               5   01331110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   00141000
      Casey                5   02222221
      Mawson              11   12233134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2100 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun     6    G0
25 Jun     6    G0
26 Jun     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 24-26 Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Jun were 
generally normal, with some mild degradations during local night 
hours at most latitudes. HF radio communication conditions over 
24-26 Jun are expected to be mostly normal, with degradations 
during local night hours persisting. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Jun   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      121
Jun      116
Jul      117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
25 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
26 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: .Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near 
predicted monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jun, 
with some depressions in the north and enhancements in the south 
during local night hours. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane, 
Hobart and Norfolk Island during local night hours. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted values over 24-26 Jun, with nighttime 
depressions possibly persisting.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    28600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au