[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 23 09:30:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0434UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.8 0855UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 196/148
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jun was R1. An M1 flare
was observed from beyond the eastern limb, possibly from ex-region
AR3697 that has a history of X-flares; this region is due to
return today. An M2 flare was also observed from AR3716 (N11W68,
beta). There are currently five numbered sunspots regions on
the visible solar disk. Most regions have shown some minor redistribution
in their trailer spots, but AR3719 (S15E30, beta-gamma) is the
only region with any noticeable growth. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 23-25 Jun.
A CME was observed off the eastern solar limb from 21/2348 UT and
is not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on
UT day 22-Jun. A large filament spanning the southwestern solar quadrant remains
stable and in tact, but will continue to be monitored closely.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 22-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 23-25 Jun.
The solar wind environment was at background levels on UT day
22-Jun. The solar wind speed continued its decline and ranged
from 370 km/s to near 300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +3 to -1 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
near background levels over 23-25 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 1101000-
Darwin 1 12100000
Townsville 1 11100101
Learmonth 2 21110000
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 0 11000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 22000000
Mawson 8 52100011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2210 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 6 G0
24 Jun 6 G0
25 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Jun. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
Antarctica, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 23-25 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Jun were
mostly normal, with some degradations in the southern hemisphere.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 23-25 Jun, with conditions becoming mildly degraded during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on
21 June and is current for 21-23 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jun were mostly
near predicted values with some depressions in the southern region.
Some spread-F was observed in Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Island
and Niue Island during local night hours. MUFs are expected to
mostly be near predicted values over 23-25 Jun, with mild depressions
continuing during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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