[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 22 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.7 20/2316UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 197/149
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity R0-R1, R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jun was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspots on the
solar disk. AR3713 (S14W52, beta) and AR3720 (S05E55, beta) have
shown some growth over the past day. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1, chance R2 over 22-24 Jun, as many of the regions are
magnetically complex.
Two CMEs were observed on UT day 21-Jun, although these are
both considered to be farside events and therefore not Earth-directed.
A filament in the solar northwest began lifting off from around 21/2019 UT
and will be monitored for any associated CME. A large filament in
the southern solar hemisphere remains stable, however given
it is in a geoeffective location it will continued to be
monitored closely for any kind of eruption.
S0 solar radiation storm events were observed on UT day 21-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm events are expected over 22-24 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 21-Jun was stable. The solar
wind speed was on a declining trend and ranged from 450 to 370
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5
to -4 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to remain near
background levels over 22-24 Jun. There are several small and
patchy coronal holes, but none are expected to make connection
with Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12200000
Cocos Island 2 1121000-
Darwin 2 22200000
Townsville 3 22200011
Learmonth 2 12210000
Alice Springs 2 12200000
Gingin 1 12100000
Canberra 1 12100000
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 22100000
Hobart 1 12100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 4 23220000
Mawson 5 22220112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3210 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 8 G0
23 Jun 6 G0
24 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 21-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 22-24 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Jun were
generally normal, with some nighttime degradations in the southern
hemisphere. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 22-24 Jun, although high latitudes may
experience nighttime degradations. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on
21 June and is current for 21-23 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21-Jun in the Australian region were mostly
near predicted values, with depressions of 20% during local night
hours. Spread F was present along the east coast of Australia
during local night hours. Sporadic-E was observed in Hobart.
Conditions in Brisbane were generally degraded during local night
hours. Scintillation was observed at Weipa from 21/1238-1358
UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 22-24
Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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