[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 June 24 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 21 09:31:55 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1518UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.7 2316UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 203/154
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 210/161 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jun was at the R2 level
due to an M5.7 flare at 20/2316UT produced by AR3719 (S12E58,
beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3712 (S25W49,
beta) is the largest region on the disk and has shown mild growth
in its trailer spots. AR3713 (S14W37, beta) has exhibited spot
development over the UT day. AR3716 (N10W46, beta) has shown
development in its trailer spots. AR3719 has shown spot development,
particularly in its leader spot. An unnumbered region is visible
near N13E60 (alpha) and is stable. A second unnumbered region
is visible near S12W43 (beta) and has shown recent decay. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 21-23 Jun, with a chance
of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
An approximately 25 degree long filament is visible centred near
S23E04. This filament will be monitored for any potential eruption.
The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Jun declined, ranging from
440 to 505 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline toward background levels over 21-23 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 4 11212012
Alice Springs 3 11112101
Gingin 4 11112112
Canberra 1 11001011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11012111
Hobart 3 11112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 01012011
Casey 6 23212112
Mawson 18 33221136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 12 G0
22 Jun 8 G0
23 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
during local daylight hours, with mild degradations during local
night hours at most latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 21-23 Jun, with further
degradations likely during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Jun were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread
F was observed at several Australian sites during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 21-23 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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