[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 20 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0638UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 196/148
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M1.1 flare at 19/0638UT from AR3711 (S12W91, beta).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3713 (S14W23, beta-gamma-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has exhibited spot development
over the UT day. AR3712 (S25W35, beta) is the largest region
on the disk and has shown spot growth in its intermediate spots.
AR3716 (S25W35, beta) has shown spot development in its trailer
spots. AR3718 (N19E20, beta) and AR3719 (S11E76, beta) have shown
spot growth. Newly numbered AR3720 (S04E82, beta) recently rotated
over the eastern limb and appears mostly stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 20-22 Jun, with a chance of R2. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 19-Jun declined, ranging from 485 to 570 km/s and is
currently near 495 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 20-22 Jun. A large coronal hole is visible entering
the western solar hemisphere, but its influence to Earth will
likely be limited due to its far northern extent.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 23212211
Cocos Island 5 12221211
Darwin 6 23212211
Townsville 7 23212221
Learmonth 9 23322321
Alice Springs 6 23212210
Gingin 8 22213321
Canberra 5 22212211
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23213221
Hobart 7 23213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 12235311
Casey 11 33323321
Mawson 22 35432352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3332 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 12 G0
21 Jun 12 G0
22 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Jun. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 20-22 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
during local daylight hours, with mild degradations during local
night hours at most latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 20-22 Jun, with further
degradations likely during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on
19 June and is current for 19-20 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Jun were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Spread F was observed at several Australian
sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 20-22 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list