[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 19 09:30:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1123UT possible lower European
M1.1 1220UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 180/171
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/171 180/171 180/171
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jun was R1, with two low-level
R1 solar flares that originated from AR3712 (S25W25, beta-delta).
There are currently six numbered sunspots on the solar disk,
although three of these regions are currently rotating off the
limb and out of sight. Of the remaining three AR3712 has continued
to grow in size and although its main delta spot has decayed, it still
dominates as the most complex spot. AR3713 (S14W10, beta-gamma)
has also grown, although not as significantly ast AS3712. AR3716
(N10W20, beta) has decayed. Solar activity is expected to be
R0-R1, with a chance for R2 over 19-21 Jun.
The pair of CMEs
that launched at the end of UT day 17-Jun have been assessed
as not being significantly geoeffective. Several CMEs were observed
on 18-Jun. Of interest was a complex series of events that occurred
in rapid succession in the northwest solar quadrant from 18/1651
UT. A filament eruption near N40W30 was quickly followed by another
filament eruption nearby, followed by a third filament eruption
just south of the vicinity. A CME was observed from 1748 UT associated
with these events, but it is not expected to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 19-Jun.
S0-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 19-21
Jun.
The solar wind environment was under the influence of a
coronal hole wind stream on UT day 18-Jun. The solar wind speed
ranged between 550-600 km/s. The interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +9 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to return to background
levels over 19-21 Jun. There is a large coronal hole in the northern
solar hemisphere, however this feature is likely too high of
a latitude to connect with Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Cocos Island 4 12222110
Darwin 7 22232122
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 9 22332222
Alice Springs 7 22232221
Gingin 10 22323322
Canberra 6 22223210
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12223221
Hobart 6 12223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 11334210
Casey 10 23332231
Mawson 25 24543425
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2321 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 8 G0
20 Jun 16 G0
21 Jun 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region on UT day 18-Jun with an isolated
period of G1 in Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 19-21 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
during local daylight hours, but somewhat degraded during local
nighttime hours at most latitudes. HF radiocommunication conditions
are generally expected to be normal, although degradations may
persist during local nighttime hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Jun were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Significant
signal spreading, in both range and frequency, was observed at
Hobart, Brisbane, Norfolk Island and Townsville during local
night hours. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane and Cocos Islands
during local dawn hours. Scintillation was observed in Niue Island
from 18/1938-1002 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values over 19-21 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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